New Zealand First leader and Former Foreign Minister Winston Peters. Photo / Mark Mitchell
OPINION:
One of the most important jobs the new Foreign Affairs Minister will have to do is approve the next chief executive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT).
The affable Chris Seed is retiring at the end of January after five years in the job. He had been High Commissioner to Australia for five years before that.
Seed was approved by Winston Peters when Peters was last Foreign Minister in the Labour-New Zealand First Coalition.
Seed’s main rival in 2018 was Bede Corry, currently New Zealand’s ambassador in Washington DC. Corry also went for it in 2015 when Brook Barrington was appointed head of MFAT. Having been the bridesmaid twice before, he may not put himself forward this time.
But if he did, his competition would likely be Bernadette Cavanagh, the deputy secretary for Pacific and development, and Ben King, deputy chief executive of policy.
A chief executive has to be alive to all of New Zealand’s interests, to give advice to the government about its options in various circumstances and to serve the interests of New Zealand abroad. And you have to have the temperament to run a happy ship. That is where Seed is said to have had it over Corry.
Peters’ stocks are high in MFAT. He listens to diplomats. He delivered in terms of Budget and resources when he last had the job from 2017 to 2020.
If Peters wants the job again this time, and there is no indication he doesn’t, National and Act would happily endorse him and it would be welcome news at the ministry. There is mutual respect between Peters and the ministry. He would be in the unusual position of having approved two successive chief executives.
Gerry Brownlee was Foreign Minister for six months in 2017 after Murray McCully stepped aside and has a certain independent streak that could make a longer stint interesting. He, of course, wants it but would only get it if Peters didn’t want it and Christopher Luxon found someone satisfactory to be Speaker, his preferred role for Brownlee.
Judith Collins, as a senior MP and former leader, had been earmarked to get Foreign Affairs if Peters had not been required for government. She would only be in play in the unlikely case that Peters did not want it.
Foreign Ministers don’t get to handpick their chief executives but they can block them.
The Public Service Commission (formerly the State Services Commission) whittles applications down to a shortlist and makes a recommendation to the minister. The minister says Yes or No to the recommendation or can prefer someone else on the shortlist before taking it to the cabinet for final approval.
Seed’s appointment in 2018 coincided with the slight distancing by New Zealand from China and increasing pressure by Five Eyes partners (Australia, US, Canada and UK) to move closer to it and its vocal opposition to China over Hong Kong and aggression in the South China Seas.
There was an informal division of labour in the first term of the Labour-led Government. Peters took the lead in New Zealand’s relationship with the Donald Trump-led US Administration, while former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern made more effort to keep the China relationship from falling into the parlous state Australia had.
Difficulties between MFAT and the Government were looming in the second term when Peters had been voted out of Parliament and MFAT had to contend with a new minister in Nanaia Mahuta and a Prime Minister who felt more sure-footed in foreign affairs.
Labour was adamant it did not want to outsource New Zealand’s relationship with China to Five Eyes but Mahuta did not have the finesse to convey that without it sounding as though New Zealand was cosying up to China.
Once New Zealand emerged from the Covid blues, the delicate balancing act continued of managing New Zealand’s relationship between China and its traditional partners.
Circumstances initially made that easier because China was still in virtual lockdown and New Zealand’s response to the invasion of Ukraine was as strong as the old friends. Ardern was feted at the White House and attended a Nato summit in Spain.
When Chris Hipkins took over from Ardern, he too was invited to a Nato summit. But he also sought an invitation to China to ensure that New Zealand’s deepening ties with the old friends were as well as, not at the expense of its relationship with China.
However by that time, such was the sensitivity towards China that MFAT advised the Government not to visit China this year, the Herald has learned from several sources.
Hipkins, possibly in consultation with Ardern, listened to MFAT but ignored its advice and decided to proceed with the visit to China, in June.
So would similar advice be given under a different MFAT leader and would a different minister or government take more notice of MFAT?
Of the three “B’s” likely to be in line for the top job - Bernadette, Ben and Bede - Ben King and Bede Corry are more in the traditional mould of Seed and may be more sensitive to the views of Five Eyes partners about New Zealand’s relationship with China.
Seed and Corry are both former deputy secretaries at the Ministry of Defence. Cavanagh worked at Defence before starting at MFAT in 2000 but in a much junior role.
This, however, would be Peters’ third rodeo in Foreign Affairs and even if he got the same advice, he is more likely to rely on his judgment than slavishly following MFAT.
If Brownlee were in the job, he would also put advice on China through a fine sieve. National places high value on New Zealand’s relationship with China, probably more than Labour does, given the strides it made when John Key was Prime Minister.
Before the election, Cavanagh was said to have had the inside running. She would have been a dead cert had Labour been re-elected – slightly ironic given that she is the daughter of a former National Prime Minister, Jim Bolger.
She is obviously not a member of the old boys’ club which has dominated MFAT since its beginning and which Peters would be most comfortable with.
She would be the first woman in the post. But the gender factor is likely to be more important for the Public Service Commission than it would be for Peters and the incoming government.
Cavanagh is, course, highly experienced and is considered a safe pair of hands.
She has had postings in Moscow, the United Nations and Singapore and in recent years was responsible for the United Nations, Human Rights and Commonwealth division, and was deputy secretary of the multilateral and legal affairs group.
She has had experience running an organisation outside of MFAT as the former chief executive of the Ministry for Arts Culture and Heritage, which is considered a plus.
But Peters probably knows Ben King better, having worked with him when he was head of the Americas and Asia group at MFAT. King, who is currently at Apec in the United States, is highly regarded and knows his way around the Beehive. He was an MFAT adviser to former Trade Minister Lockwood Smith and to John Key when he was Prime Minister.
This is likely to be Cavanagh’s first and only go at the top job whereas King could have another go next time - although by then he could be up against the likes of the ministry’s trade Tsar, Vangelis Vitalis.
If Cavanagh got the MFAT job, Corry could be a candidate for Secretary of Defence when that role comes up next year, and Ben King could have his pick of Washington or Canberra, which will soon be vacated by Annette King.
Conversely, Cavanagh could be well placed to get the top Defence role if King landed the top MFAT role.
Let the musical chairs begin.
Expectations tempered around return to surplus in 2027/28.