On 37 per cent, the party is healthily ahead of Labour which was on 34 per cent, and in a position to govern with Act, which polled 9 per cent.
The second lesson is that the party's polling is fairly resilient. It has survived events that run the full spectrum of wobble to scandal: the botched response to the US Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v Wade, Te Puke-gate, and Sam Uffindell.
People like what National is offering, or dislike Labour enough to give the party a shot (right track-wrong track numbers from other polls suggest there's a fair whack of "turf them out" sentiment in the electorate right now).
Since the political year began, National has been polling ahead of Labour, and several polls now have shown it in a position to form a government with Act. Leader Christopher Luxon has done what he promised to do last December and led National out of the wilderness.
That job done, Luxon is no longer the clear favourite to lose the next election, but he's also not the clear favourite to win it in the way John Key was in 2008. Again, that points to a 2023 drag race to the Beehive.
The third lesson is one that could be missed, and that is how relatively (relatively, mind) unpopular both party leaders are going into the next election.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's preferred prime minister rating is now 30 per cent - fairly low compared to the last government's second term. The 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll (1 News-Kantar by another name) never once had John Key in the thirties in his second term, despite the many challenges of 2011-2014 (Three News-Reid twice had Key in the high thirties, but other polls also had Key's PPM in the 50s and 60s).
The only recent comparison would be Bill English, whose preferred prime minister polling slid into the high twenties, but that was a third term government, and English's worst polling coincided with very bad preferred prime minister polling for Labour. By the time Ardern took over, both leaders stabilised in the low to mid-thirties.
Another comparison might again be the 2005 election, when Helen Clark - shortly after the Orewa Speech - fell to 32 per cent in a 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll. But unlike this poll, which had Luxon a distant second on 21 per cent, then-National leader Don Brash was on 31 per cent.
But if Ardern and Labour have popularity issues, so does National, which is in the unusual position of having a popular party with a relatively (again, relatively) unpopular leader.
At 21 per cent, Luxon has stronger personal ratings than other recent National leaders, but the country clearly hasn't fallen in love with him in the way they did with Ardern and Key.
Currently this appears not to be a problem. Luxon isn't on the ballot. We vote for parties not people and National's polling is strong enough to take power next year.
But - trite though it is to say - modern election campaigns are presidential, and in many voters' minds next year's election isn't party vs party - Labour vs National, but Ardern vs Luxon. In the context of a campaign, when the spotlight narrows to leader vs leader, Ardern's handsome lead over Luxon may mean more than it does now as minds focus on who they actually want to lead the country. Her lead over Luxon may, during the campaign, translate into a Labour lead over National.
That said, 1-News-Kantar wisely asks voters who they'd prefer if the field were narrowed to just Ardern and Luxon. Ardern won 47 per cent, Luxon, 41 - suggesting people don't love Luxon, but many don't mind being led by him either (don't forget though, that Luxon dropped four points on the last poll).
All three lessons point to a nail-biter election next year where two relatively (for the third time, relatively) unpopular leaders, at the head of their somewhat more popular parties, scrap to win the right to form a government.
Again, if 2005 is any precedent, this could mean some substantial, not to mention costly, election promises as well as a fairly grubby campaign.
