Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will be hoping Monday's Cabinet reshuffle focuses the eyes of the electorate and her caucus firmly on the future.
The dual retirements of Speaker Trevor Mallard and Minister Kris Faafoi gave Ardern ample excuse for what her office called a "minor" reshuffle (a mid-level reshuffle is probably more accurate).
Most importantly, it gave Ardern the opportunity to gently shove her Police Minister Poto Williams sideways (Williams retains her Cabinet ranking of 10), and publicly acknowledge dissatisfaction with the state of policing. Much like Ardern's belated acknowledgement of the cost-of-living crisis earlier this year, this was an important signal to the electorate that five years into government, Ardern has not become so distant she does not hear public concerns.
The fact she's appointed Chris Hipkins, fast becoming this Government's "Mr Fix-it", to replace Williams is further evidence Ardern saw a problem that needs to be solved. Like a ministerial fire blanket, he's the sort of person you throw at problems before they rage out of control.
Ardern herself said the "current narrative" around the Police portfolio had become distracting. That narrative shifted gears last week when National leader Christopher Luxon challenged Ardern in the House to confirm that Williams would retain her portfolio following the next reshuffle.
Ardern said she had confidence in Williams, but would not confirm she would keep her job. The answer was met with the braying of the National and Act caucuses. Labour was silent. Williams had essentially been sacked in advance in front of 120 MPs.
There's plenty of work for Hipkins to get on with: firearms protection orders, the gun register, and the discussion with Police Commissioner Andy Coster about what can be done to bring the current outbreak of gang violence under control
Whether Hipkins is up for the job is a question for the future. It helps that Ardern has relieved him of the Covid-19 Response portfolio (which has gone to Ayesha Verrall). Having brought a level of order to the messy and ad-hoc Covid-19 Response, which often struggled with excessive partitioning of responsibility, Hipkins is probably better prepared than most to bring some order to policing.
Where he may struggle is that, unlike in the Covid-19 portfolio, in which he was able to create clear lines of communication between the front lines of the response through the Ministry of Health, DPMC, all the way up to the Beehive, there's only so much Hipkins can do to bring the police under control. The police are operationally independent from the Beehive - and for good reason. But this necessary independence does mean corralling them into action can be a challenge.
Ardern also stripped Williams of her Building and Construction portfolio, giving it to Megan Woods. This portfolio, which comprises not just the perpetually beleaguered construction sector, but also things like earthquake building standards, does not get the attention it deserves. Ardern said it was given to Woods to consolidate housing-related portfolios in one minister. One could wonder whether it was given to Woods to pre-emptively fix before it becomes a problem.
As for Mallard's retirement from politics, Ardern has known this was coming for some time, but she will likely not be displeased it has come now. Mallard's likely replacement, Adrian Rurawhe, seems to enrage the opposition less than Mallard. In the last sitting block, he deputised for Mallard who was overseas, and ably chaired Question Time. He was firm but fair in the chair, and was able to bring MPs into line without generating the rage Mallard seemed to.
This rage seemed to come from all sides, fed by Mallard's actions, and by the Opposition's baiting him.
His decision to move on gives all sides the opportunity to reset the clock.
Faafoi might have served for longer as minister, although Ardern might have sought to remove his Immigration and Justice portfolios (on Monday, Faafoi admitted that being a non-lawyer in the Justice portfolio had been a challenge). His retirement gives Ardern the chance to promote a fresh face to Cabinet, Priyanca Radhakrishnan, and a fresh face to the executive, Kieran McAnulty, who will be minister outside of Cabinet.
Both are deserving of their promotions. McAnulty, a former bookie, will enjoy the racing portfolio, but as a rural MP with the Associate Local Government portfolio he'll have his work cut out for him selling the Government's Three Waters reforms to rural New Zealand where it is particularly unpopular.
The most significant announcement on Monday was perhaps (as it often is with this Government) an announcement of an announcement: Ardern intends to do another reshuffle earlier next year.
If this reshuffle was tipped as "minor" that one could see Ardern shifting a number of senior or non-performing ministers off to greener pastures.
Ardern said on Monday this would be a more "comprehensive" reshuffle "with a constant review to the future", balancing experience with the need to bring on fresh talent.
Ardern would not say whether other ministers had approached her about retirement (there's a good chance at least a couple will have spoken about stepping down in 2023).
This reshuffle is where the focus should be. It's a signal that lagging ministers may find themselves turfed from Cabinet to free up new space for up-and-coming talent. John Key's mid-second term reshuffle saw the promotion of Nikki Kaye and Simon Bridges, two important talents for the party - Ardern needs to find her equivalents, and promote them.
Promotions for Kiritapu Allan, Michael Wood, Megan Woods, and Barbara Edmonds are a good start, but Ardern might want to reach further into the backbench for her next reshuffle.
Ardern has an unique problem this term. Her 2020 victory presented her with an enormous caucus of 65 MPs, 20 of whom (an entire Cabinet) would lose their seats if the most recent public poll is anything to go by.
Labour did a good job in 2020 of selecting a crop of ambitious and talented MPs, doing the work of cultivating a diverse group of future leaders National currently regrets it did not do many elections ago.
Ardern's challenge will be making sure the best of these MPs aren't swept away in 2023. This reshuffle isn't just about Ardern's possible third term - it's about achieving that most elusive and unrewarded feats: leaving sufficient talent in caucus to build a solid opposition after the Government eventually loses.
Easing the way to promotion will ensure discipline from this new crop, as well as ensuring existing Cabinet members step up in the knowledge that if they don't, a replacement is nibbling at their heels.
Where the Prime Minister will be on national day is unclear.