PM Jacinda Ardern addresses media at Pacific Islands Forum. Video / NZ Herald
Opinion by Thomas Coughlan
Thomas Coughlan, Deputy Political Editor at the New Zealand Herald, loves applying a political lens to people's stories and explaining the way things like transport and finance touch our lives.
Foreign affairs and trade have been near the top of the Government's agenda since Easter, when the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern left on her first overseas trade mission to Japan and Korea.
Ardern spent nearly a week out of the country then. Soon after, she left for the UnitedStates for about a fortnight, a day in Australia after that followed by five days in Europe, another week in Australia and this week the Pacific Islands Forum.
It's an impressive itinerary, and the trips have been mostly successful.
The first trip saw Ardern beefing up security ties with Japan, agreeing to share more classified information on international issues. Japan has been seeking to deepen security and intelligence ties with Five Eyes countries (and has had some success with the UK). New Zealand's agreement shows it has at least some sympathy for Japan's predicament vis-a-vis its increasingly belligerent neighbour, China.
The United States trip was successful on branding terms. Ardern's Harvard Commencement Speech will be remembered in the same vein as David Lange's appearance before the Oxford Union. Lange's wit and the place of that debate in how New Zealanders remember the battle over New Zealand's nuclear free policy will likely mean it looms larger in the historical memory, but to be fair to Ardern, the Harvard Commencement Speech is a greater honour. Distinguished speakers debate at the Oxford Union most nights - Harvard Commencement speeches are very rare.
Securing a White House visit is an essential part of any leadership, so ticking off a trip to the Biden White House was important to Ardern.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has had a successful mid-year stint overseas. Photo / Getty Images
Ardern's two Australia trips have taken advantage of the fact our closest neighbour is now under new management (management which is more sympathetic to New Zealand's interests and which is currently enjoying a honeymoon) to push for improved pathways to citizenship for New Zealanders in Australia, rolling back some of the decline in New Zealanders' rights in Australia seen over the last two decades.
The outcomes from Ardern's trip to the Pacific Islands Forum this week are not yet clear, but her presence is a strong indication of New Zealand's physical return to the contested, post-Covid Pacific.
The record of overseas achievements is not entirely positive.
Two of the most significant overseas "wins" have question marks after them.
Ardern concluded negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement with the European Union - a trade prize second only to that most elusive goal of an agreement with the United States (or the US' reentry into CPTPP).
Agriculture is unhappy with the level of market access achieved. Hopefully the deal's passage through Parliament will shed some light on whether the deal is the best that could realistically be hoped for (as trade officials say) or whether agriculture was sacrificed for the sake of getting a deal over the line.
Likewise, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's remarks on the application of Australia's 501 deportation policy are not necessarily the win they're perceived to be. The policy itself will not change, but the application of it will.
This could be a significant win, given the hash (often ridiculous) application of the policy is New Zealand's main grievance, but informally changing the application of the policy leaves plenty of wriggle room to revert to the status quo ante should domestic politics around crime and migration deteriorate. In that case, any win would be short-lived.
Those concerns aside, Ardern has had a remarkably successful mid-term OE. This is not unprecedented. Overseas visits are tightly managed and planned to flatter a leader. Serious cock ups are rare, but it is arguable that wins achieved in the FTA and on the 501 problem are the best possible under the circumstances.
Jacinda Ardern concluded negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement with European Union commission president Ursula von der Leyen. Photo / Getty Images
The trips have taken place against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic and political picture at home. On the eve of Ardern's mission to Japan, the Reserve Bank hiked the Official Cash Rate from 1 to 1.5. Yesterday, while Ardern was in Fiji, the Bank hiked again from 2 to 2.5 (the last tightening cycle it took six months to move the cash rate 100 basis points - this year, it's moved 150 basis points in half the time)
Elections are not won overseas, and Ardern's achievements abroad, though important, are unlikely to carry any significant domestic appeal: trade deals, deportations, and strategic competition aren't exactly barbeque chat in the vein of law and order and the cost of living.
But there's some light peeking from behind the clouds for Ardern, some of her own making, some not. The Government has made an attempt to seize the initiative on policing from National with its new Justice and Police ministers unveiling a meaty package of reforms targeted at gangs on Wednesday (the tough-on-crime approach comes with the added benefit of giving the Greens space to differentiate themselves from Labour).
Most significantly, there are signs that maybe, just maybe, the cost-of-living crisis is losing steam. It's not getting better, but it's getting worse less quickly, suggesting the crisis might be peaking.
Oil prices are at a three-month low, and food and grocery prices, though still increasing, are not spiralling out of control. Could we be nearing the peak of the inflation crisis? Possibly.
House prices are continuing to decline, but less than expected (ANZ reckons they will still fall, just perhaps not on the schedule expected).
After what has truly been a winter of economic discontent, Ardern will likely welcome any return to slightly more benign economic conditions.
In fact, as Ardern catches something of a breather it's rival Christopher Luxon who caught a spot of bad luck.
His first official overseas trip as leader would have been a good opportunity to establish himself on the world stage, shaking hands with like minded (ideally high profile) world leaders. Instead, Luxon had the misfortune to time the centrepiece of his overseas trip, a visit to London, with the demise of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, leading to many of his engagements being scrapped.
After six months of pretty good luck in the role, the last fortnight of bad luck, combined with miscommunications on abortion and business are a good lesson for Luxon: you can't always count on the wind being at your back - in fact, in Wellington, it's best to plan it won't be.
