OPINION
The week before he went to China, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was in his comfort zone.
The resignation of Michael Wood prompted a rejig of his schedule, meaning a proposed roundtable chat with travelling press was moved from a stuffy Beehive office to the unfinished kitchen of a new state house, part of a new development in the Hutt Valley, next to Hipkins’ own electorate.
In hi-vis vest, in the Hutt, surrounded by loyal ministers and staff, proudly touting the delivery of 12,000 more public homes - an area where this government’s record of delivery is strong - this is where Labour leaders of Hipkins’ style are most at home.
China was a major test for him. His previous trips were to Australia, whose Labor leader Anthony Albanese is about as close to an Australian Hipkins as you could get, a brief jaunt to Papua New Guinea, and King Charles’ coronation - fairly low stakes.
China is different. New Zealand is heavily exposed to this country (too exposed, by almost everyone’s admission - even the Government’s, which is diplomatically urging people to diversify).
A bad look from President Xi Jinping, and New Zealand’s trade would asphyxiate, taking the economy with it, with China looking elsewhere for dairy, logs, tourism and education.
Hipkins seemed untroubled by the high-stakes game.
“Foreign policy is not the area I have been most immersed in but I like to think I’m a quick learner,” he said that day in the Hutt.
A few days later, having ingested hundreds of pages of briefing notes on the three flights to China - a point raised in support of taking the spluttering Defence Force plane(s): it’s not the done thing to take sensitive briefing notes on a commercial flight - interspersed with some Netflix series downloaded on an iPad, Hipkins arrived in China exhausted but prepared.
It worked and he performed well.
The Great Hall of the People is not the Cossie Club. Hipkins was diplomatic when asked to describe the place: “It’s a pretty imposing building and it’s obviously an incredible opportunity to go and visit.”
Hipkins is right, the place is undeniably “imposing”. Glowering over a corner of Tiananmen Square (adorned this week with New Zealand flags - quite the sight), it’s impossible not to arrive at the place without thinking of the Tiananmen Square incident, however much the government here would rather you didn’t.
The place and its history project the awesome, awful power of this country and the party that controls it.
Hipkins was not daunted.
His success in China may have been sealed by remarks he made that day in the Hutt, in which he refused to describe Xi as a dictator. The comments appear to have greased the gears here.
The decision has gone down well in the propaganda press, and Xi seems to have raised his appreciation of the decision in his meeting with Hipkins.
China has offered New Zealand an enviable space in which to have our milk powder and eat it too - if we refrain from getting too enmeshed in its internal affairs, if we refrain from aligning ourselves too much with the United States, our preferred position in the Chinese market is secure.
Hipkins seems happy with this for now (even if he looks slightly ridiculous - it may not be diplomatic to call Xi a dictator, but it’s not an entirely inaccurate description of a man who has further consolidated the not-inconsiderable powers of the leader of a one-party state). If the situation in China and China’s affairs abroad continue to deteriorate, New Zealand will inevitably need to get off the fence and wear the trade consequences of this, but the Government appears to have decided that is a problem for another day.
In the meantime, Hipkins arrives back in Wellington, having delivered on the trade goals he set himself for the trip.
Former PM Jacinda Ardern’s only visit here, in 2019, was brief, owing to it taking place in the aftermath of the March 15 attacks. The pandemic meant she was never able to return with a business delegation. The fact Hipkins is here at all with a delegation is a significant win.
China’s one-party system means political power opens doors for business. Members of the business delegation say Hipkins’ presence has opened doors that may otherwise have remained closed; one said they achieved 10 years of progress on the trip.
Hipkins is undeniably happy with that. After a flat Wednesday, perhaps prompted by jetlag, perhaps by the fact it was the day the Kiri Allan allegations began to emerge, Hipkins recovered on Thursday and Friday - hitting his stride and visibly enjoying himself more.
On Friday morning in Shanghai, he was happily wolfing down sausage rolls and posing with giant kiwifruit. It was a rare instance in which Hipkins performed better than Ardern would have done. Ardern would blitz Hipkins in most diplomatic contexts, but Hipkins outguns her in situations in which the prime minister must risk looking a bit silly in a photograph (again, much like Key).
On the domestic front, he returns having positioned himself as something of an international hustler and inheritor of the Key-English trade-focused foreign policy - a bit of a departure from the Ardern years, which grasped for something loftier.
All of this success won’t, alas for Hipkins, matter a jot at home.
He arrives home as fuel prices jump up thanks to the end of the Government’s fuel excise subsidy, and bad press about yet another minister.
The latter will have less of an impact on the election than is often thought. Elections past have proved that voters are tolerant of ministerial mishaps if they like what the party leader is selling. This appears to be the case with Hipkins, who’s positioned Labour to a polling deadlock with National despite losing three ministers.
He’ll be terrified that in the next week or two, more will emerge about Allan’s complicated relationship with her staff that requires him to discipline her, possibly a suspension while an investigation is carried out.
He is in a bind until then. Absent any formal complaint, Hipkins and Allan are in limbo. He can hardly discipline her over anonymous allegations, but it’s also untenable to do nothing as more and more people come forward to the media - as of Thursday, Stuff reported four senior staff have come forward.
Hipkins is already facing questions about the likelihood of a snap election.
He’s got 19 ministers in his Cabinet, having decided not to replace Wood. Dropping to 18 would be incredibly embarrassing, and weaken his mandate to continue to govern.
It’s a far cry from 2020, when Labour was so amused by National’s “strong team” ads that it commissioned polling on the topic, finding that voters scoffed at National’s team, far preferring Labour.
The same poll, conducted in 2023, could well see voters question just which team Labour was fielding, such is the metabolism of the Cabinet.
A snap election, however, remains unlikely given we’re only months away from the election anyway, and there’s no political upside in Hipkins in going early, aside from the opportunity of renewing a frayed mandate.
The only thing going for Hipkins is the fact National continues to be unable to seal the deal and open up a convincing poll lead over Labour.
The problem with National appears to be that it is targeting the wrong voters, with recent significant policy changes on housing and emissions pivoting towards Act, rather than scrapping with Labour (both Labour and Act are bemused by this). Labour thinks swing voters this election are 30-ish urban women. National isn’t doing enough to win this demographic over, as it did under John Key.
At the current rate of attrition, Hipkins could lose another two ministers before Parliament is dissolved (and thereafter, given ministers stay ministers after the dissolution). It’s possible that this group of voters is so rusted on that swing voters will reluctantly, unenthusiastically tick the red box in spite of all that.
Labour will do its best to make sure they do. We’re gearing up for a tight, negative election, with both sides running scare campaigns about how horrible life will be under the “coalition of cuts” or the “coalition of chaos”.
Hipkins’ honeymoon ended with the Stuart Nash scandal. It is well and truly over now. Hipkins, having done everything to give Labour a second chance this election, must feel exasperated by his team, who have done so much to undermine that effort.
He will hope voters do not feel similarly.
Thomas Coughlan is deputy political editor of the New Zealand Herald, which he joined in 2021. He previously worked for Stuff and Newsroom in their Press Gallery offices in Wellington. He started in the Press Gallery in 2018.
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