“I felt this for a long time since the long-term plans came out earlier in the year. I think most incumbents are vulnerable ... those with large rate increases.
“It’s probably been explained in some places better than others but I think, ultimately, when we are still in an economic decline, rates is something that they can actually do something about by voting.
“Whether that’s appropriate or it’s a shame, we’ll find out, but it does give those people those incumbents a few months to sort of work out what they’re going to say.”
Leggett predicts many will stand down beforehand as well due to the difficulties of local government, and the “nastiness” in some communities.
Wilson said that one mayor who seemed vulnerable a year ago – Auckland’s Wayne Brown – is in a steady position to be re-elected.
“I think Auckland, because it has low rates, Wayne Brown is looking pretty secure. It’s interesting that there are three big National Party names waiting in the wings – Simon Bridges, Desley Simpson, and Paula Bennett – but none of them appears to be really making a run for it.
“On the left, they are hoping that one of them will, so they’ll split the vote with Brown and get in, but the left has no candidate, so it looks very strongly like Wayne Brown will have a second term if he wants it.”
One mayor potentially in trouble is Wellington’s Tory Whanau. After a string of controversial comments, Whanau was dealt a blow when councillors voted against a plan to sell the council’s shares in Wellington Airport, prompting Local Government Minister Simeon Brown to appoint a Crown Observer.
Wilson said that one of the issues Whanau faces is that she got blamed for issues that weren’t necessarily her fault.
“Wellington looks like it’s in more of a mess than it perhaps is, in terms of the council being able to function. They clearly can pass resolutions. they clearly can come to agreement on things and they’re moving forward.
“The problem for Tory Whanau is that even though she was in favour of selling the airport shares, when the decision was made to reverse that proposal and keep the shares somehow, she kind of got blamed for that. It wasn’t her fault. And she, I think, managed to rescue and put a new proposal on the table now pretty well.”
Listen to the full episode of the On the Tiles: Local Edition for more winners, losers and standouts from the year in local politics.
On the Tiles is available on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes are available on Fridays.
The podcast is hosted by Georgina Campbell, a Wellington-based reporter who has a particular interest in local government, transport, and seismic issues. She joined the Herald in 2019 after working as a broadcast journalist.
