It is four months since Chris Hipkins became prime minister – and the halfway point between that moment and the general election.
It’s been a long four months: marked by natural disasters, Cyclone Gabrielle, a Budget and some caucus problems.
This weekend is also the first time he will front up to the Labour Party membership as leader, at Labour’s congress in Te Papa in Wellington.
They already know him well, but will be curious to know what he looks like as the leader – and the comparisons with Jacinda Ardern will inevitably be made.
The last time the membership met together, in Auckland last year, Ardern was at the helm and nobody expected her to quit.
Jacindamania never waned among the Labour rank and file, even as polling showed it had waned elsewhere. However, the shift to Hipkins did give Labour an instant bump in the polls, even if that has moved around a bit.
So how has Hipkins gone so far? The Herald did a report on Hipkins’ first four months as PM, asking MPs and others what sort of a prime minister Hipkins has turned out to be and how they thought he had done.
The sales pitch for Hipkins’ reset of Labour’s policy programme was more crucial than the actual delivery of it turned out to be.
Hipkins began by promising to return Labour to focusing on the core issues in people’s lives – especially the cost of living and jobs – and to trim its overloaded reform programme.
He used the “bread and butter” and “back to basics” phrases and embarked on his policy bonfire, delaying a planned income insurance scheme, scrapping the media merger and cutting several relatively minor programmes that he assessed did not deliver bang for buck, such as the cash-for-clunkers scheme. Three Waters was reprogrammed and renamed, mitigating some but not all of its controversial aspects.
It resulted in an initial $1 billion in savings. It could have gone further but did not, partly because it was interrupted by Cyclone Gabrielle’s bill of up to $14b. Perhaps the more important value to Hipkins was in successfully (for a while at least) seeding the perception that he was in touch with voters’ day-to-day concerns.
As a result, he hasn’t managed to secure a total turnaround for Labour in the polls – but he has done enough to make people look at the party again and give it a fighting chance.
When it comes to presentation and style, Ardern and Hipkins are chalk and cheese. Ardern excelled at set-piece speeches and the moments when soaring rhetoric was what was needed – the moments after big disasters and when she needed to put the country into lockdown.
Hipkins excels in plain speaking and off-the-cuff moments: the sparring in Parliament, the quick to-and-fro of media interviews. His speech on Sunday will be the first proper opportunity to see how he delivers on the big moment, and he has said that will be done in a manner more fitting to his style than Ardern’s.
Hipkins’ more plain-spoken approach has so far served him well.
He scores highly in the polls on the issue of trust. Labour has identified that as a big asset against Christopher Luxon, about whom voters are still uncertain.
So the work has started on pushing the Hipkins brand. If Ardern’s brand was tied to words such as inspirational, Hipkins’ is tied to his ordinariness and trust – the Budget was billed the “Chris Hipkins Labour Budget” and took pride in being a bit boring and sensible.
The sausage rolls and Coke schtick is getting a bit tedious, but it is not a fabrication. Thus far, Hipkins has pretty much stayed as himself, just with the cameras around a lot more to capture it.
One MP said that, with Hipkins, “what you see is what you get” – and that was the case in the Cabinet room as much as in public. “He’s got no airs and graces,” Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson says. “And Kiwis seem to love it. I did wonder how it was going to go [when he first took over]. And it couldn’t have gone better.”
Hipkins has a good political instinct and trusts it. He is good in Parliament, where he has long been one of Labour’s best operators. His experience as Leader of the House and his obvious love of the format stand him in good stead.
Sometimes it is not enough. He has been caught out on questions around details of policies, or on basic economic questions such as not knowing how much the Government spent in a year. National had a field day with that one.
Thus far, nothing catastrophic has come from that, but it is a further contrast with Ardern.
A staffer described Hipkins as “uncomplicated” to deal with. It was a contrast to Ardern, who liked to be all over the detail of every move and announcement. Ardern was a details person (some might say micro-manager). Hipkins is not.
Hipkins puts a lot of trust in his staff and his ministers to do their jobs. As a result, ministers are more relaxed both in private and public. One said debates around the Cabinet table were more free-flowing.
Then there is the media. He already had good connections with many journalists and maintains them diligently, calling to talk through significant announcements. It was something Ardern very rarely did, but which former PMs Helen Clark and John Key also did effectively (and sometimes still do).
Ardern avoided doing anything risky in front of the cameras: no eating, no photo ops requiring physical activity. She once refused to stand near a calf on a dairy farm.
Hipkins is in boots and all and has proven a dab hand at the self-deprecating photo op – eating, drinking, dancing at Pasifika, playing pool, operating a digger.
So far, he knows how far he can take such things, although Jackson is quick to answer when he’s asked what Hipkins’ weak points are, saying Hipkins should be barred from ever taking to the dance floor at a Pasifika festival again. Hipkins did not disagree.
The Auckland floods hit just two days after Hipkins was appointed prime minister – and Cyclone Gabrielle ripped through from Northland to Hawke’s Bay two weeks later. The recovery remains one of the biggest items on his ’ list.
In dealing with them, he got off to a good start, heading straight up to Auckland to see it for himself and sit down with Civil Defence and the council (before an awkward press conference with Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown). He did the same after Cyclone Gabrielle.
The initial response was strong and quick and Hipkins was all over it. There was money to help with the cleanup and a promise of more to come, and quick moves to reopen key roads, even if only through the temporary measure of a Bailey bridge. A silt inquiry was called very quickly, and a group was formed to work through the other complicated stuff.
It paid off, but Hipkins was well aware that things would get harder as time passed. They have. But locals can see roads reopening and the Budget contained wodges of cash both for the immediate recovery and the longer rebuild of infrastructure. The harder decisions on business support and how land designated unsuitable for use will be dealt with lie ahead. Not everybody is happy.
But Hipkins’ overall management of it has been solid so far.
Hipkins also went on a damage control mission: his first visits were to Auckland to build relationships with business and with Aucklanders themselves. He has made a number of repeat visits, both to business leaders and Auckland more widely.
His first days as prime minister were spent in Auckland. It was for good reason: Labour was suffering in Auckland as a result of the tail end of the Covid-19 response.
It was a relationship that needed emergency repair work and the Auckland flooding made that even more of a priority. It also delivered the opportunity he needed to do it.
Quite simply, the region decides the election.
Since 2008, the results in Auckland have either been bang on the nationwide result or have shown higher support for the governing party than the nationwide result.
In 2008, National got 48 per cent of the vote in Auckland and sat like concrete at that level for four elections. In 2020, its support plummeted to 27 per cent. Labour’s support in Auckland shifted between 28 per cent in 2014 and 37 per cent in 2017. It then rocketed up to 50 per cent in 2020.
No major political party can take Auckland for granted. The party that wins Auckland wins the election.
Hipkins is well aware Labour won’t necessarily win many votes among the business sector, but any government needs to have a functioning and constructive relationship with business, both big and small.
Like justice, for a Labour PM business must be seen to be done, so Hipkins tends to make sure people know about his meetings with business groups, whether they are closed-door meetings or speeches. He also regularly meets unions, but those are more under the radar.
He has not yet built up a network of trusted businesspeople he can sound out to gauge the mood or how a policy shift might go down. He needs to have that. Thus far it seems his most frequent contact is with Auckland Chamber head Simon Bridges.
When it comes to former National MPs being your “trusted” go-tos, here’s hoping Hipkins has recently read Little Red Riding Hood and will remember the big bad wolf disguising himself as granny.
Employers and Manufacturers Association head Brett O’Riley says Hipkins’ interest in meeting with business was a welcome one and he seemed to listen to the issues raised.
He said Hipkins seemed relaxed in the company of businesspeople – more so than Ardern.
The so-called policy bonfire ticked off some things on the business list: they were not fans of the income insurance scheme or public media merger, for example.
However, there were still questions, including whether Hipkins would deliver on what was needed, whether the role of the state in the economy was too large, and whether Hipkins would be able to set out a coherent programme to build the economy.
“So if it was a report card, it would probably be something like ‘Chris is a very engaging student and popular with his classmates, but we are yet to see a major assignment completed by him’.”
The economy, foreign affairs and te ao Māori.
In many ways, Hipkins’ experience as a senior minister has helped him move to the PM’s chair, but none of his portfolios covered the three areas above.
Foreign affairs is an area in which prime ministers tend to develop over time and Hipkins has not had much time, thus far fitting in short trips to Australia, London and PNG. Nor is an election year a good time to embark on a long string of overseas trips, although he will go to Europe for a Nato summit and possibly China before the campaign starts.
The more critical area for him at home is the economy, something on which he has had to bone up quickly. It will be the dominant issue on the campaign and is also the area in which Luxon is most fluent. Hence National’s glee when Hipkins was caught short on the question of how much the Government spent in a year.
Hipkins’ political instincts will carry him only so far in that regard.
Crucially, Hipkins has recognised where his shortcomings are and what he needs to work on.
He told the Māori caucus when he first got the job that his exposure to te ao Māori was limited and he would need to consult with them frequently: an admission the MPs spoken to appreciated and said he had adhered to.
Hipkins has had a few personnel issues to deal with since he took over, including the gradual sacking of Stuart Nash, a gentle reprimand for Kiri Allan, and being blindsided by Meka Whaitiri’s defection. He has had to do three mini-reshuffles in four months. As with any reshuffle, there will be people who feel overlooked, especially in a caucus as large as Labour’s, but murmurings have largely been kept behind closed doors.
As any PM does, Hipkins has started to develop his own team of MVPs rather than stick with Ardern’s.
His deputy Carmel Sepuloni has turned out to be the safe pair of hands he expected. Kieran McAnulty is fast becoming a bit of a Mr Fixit – a job Hipkins once had himself. Ayesha Verrall has stepped up significantly since taking on the health portfolio.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson remains critical but is less in the spotlight now. Hipkins has taken some risks on new appointments: Ginny Andersen as police minister and promoting Willow-Jean Prime into Cabinet, both appointments that are still in the testing phase.
He is described as fair by MPs and “relaxed and professional” in setting the tone.
Hipkins’ handling of problems has sometimes been criticised by the Opposition and commentators, but has also probably helped ensure his MPs see him as fair and willing to give them a decent hearing.
There was his initial reluctance to sack Nash until the third strike, and his response to Allan’s comments at a private RNZ function questioning the media outlet’s treatment of its Māori journalists, prompted by her wish to defend her partner, Māni Dunlop. Hipkins said she should have avoided the comments, but also it was understandable she would want to defend her family.
Hipkins has also said other senior ministers could have done more to help Nanaia Mahuta defend the Three Waters reforms – an acknowledgment that was appreciated.
The exit of Whaitiri put the spotlight on Hipkins’ relationship with the Māori caucus. If anything, that appears to have strengthened the relationship rather than hurt it.
The others in the Māori caucus were as surprised by Whaitiri’s move as Hipkins was, and for the reasons behind it – the removal of the “shackles” of caucus and, three weeks later, Whaitiri’s statement that part of it was Hipkins himself.
The Māori MPs said he consulted them over his plans to change Three Waters and met the Māori caucus regularly.
His first ports of call are usually Willie Jackson, with whom he has a good relationship, Kelvin Davis and Nanaia Mahuta, depending on the issue. Jackson said Hipkins was not afraid to confront the “hard issues”.
“[Three Waters] was a testing process. He made a clear decision which some would have thought he wouldn’t have made. I was proud of the way he looked at things – he wasn’t unnerved by the politics around it.”
He passed his first big test in that area: putting paid to the Māori MPs’ initial concerns that he would back away from the co-governance aspects of the Three Waters reforms by keeping them intact.
He made it clear early on to Māori ministers – and iwi leaders when meeting them at Waitangi – that he was not going to back away from it for political expedience; he just thought it should be explained better.
Other MPs spoken to said that, barring the Whaitiri defection, there was unity behind Hipkins in caucus and an acknowledgment that he was the best person to take them into the election.
It follows concerns about use-of-force powers being given to staff.