The Front Page: Why have our major parties become so risk-averse?

There isn't much separating Chris Hipkins from Christopher Luxon.

Those hoping for bold political change are unlikely to see anything from the country’s two largest parties this election.

Victoria University of Wellington politics professor Dr Lara Greaves tells The Front Page podcast as parties grapple for swing voters, they’re unlikely to do anything that might spook those in the centre.

“There are still people who like the status quo, and that’s why it’s popular,” says Greaves.

“If you like the idea of radical change in New Zealand politics, we do have multiple options for your vote come October.”

Greaves says the decisions of both Labour and National will be based on research offering an indication of what voters want.

“Labour and National do a lot of market research and a lot more than we see for media companies. That’s probably something that they’re being guided by.”

It’s notable that both major parties are targeting people with young children, which Greaves describes as a key swing vote category.

“Studies like the New Zealand election study have shown that the group that tends to be less committed partisan and more likely swing voters are women. There’s some motivation kicking around there and around trying to appeal to those.”

What this means is that voters looking for bold or radical changes to the current status quo are unlikely to find what they’re looking for in anything that’s being offered by the main parties right now.

The word ‘radical’ could mean different things to different people, which means it’s really up to voters to decide what’s important to them.

“If I was advising somebody who wants radical change, I’d suggest they vote for a party that is more likely to do something radical. If you’re on the left, there are options. If you’re on the right, there are options. If you’re somewhere in between or are very pro-Māori indigenous politics, then there are options for you. Voters that want something more radical should try to increase the likelihood of those minor parties having a bit more sway… If someone doesn’t think the centre parties are doing enough, you go the flanks. You go further to the left or further to the right.”

The smaller parties do, however, remain dependent on the larger parties and will struggle to force the hand of either National or Labour unless they become substantially bigger.

Greaves says this is particularly true of our MMP system, where the Greens and Act only have one realistic coalition partner on either side of the political spectrum.

“Every election, there’s a phase we go through where we say that the Greens might go with National and be blue-green, but that seems to be a myth more than anything else.”

Without that added bargaining power that comes with the threat of forming a Government with another party, the smaller parties are essentially backed into a corner unless they become large enough to really have political sway.

• So, how likely is it that we’ll see any bold policies in the coming months?
• Do smaller parties have any hopes of getting their ideas across the line?
• Is our MMP system still working as it was intended?
• And are our politicians putting personal ambition ahead of actually getting stuff done?

Listen to the full episode of The Front Page podcast to hear the full discussion with Greaves.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It is presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.

You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.