As Hipkins and Luxon battle over the centre, what's happening on the left and right?
The coming election could serve as a warning to the major parties that their power bases aren’t as strong as they once were.
Both Labour and National are leaning heavily into the centre in a head-to-head battle for the middle New Zealand vote.
But Simon Wilson tells The Front Page podcast that in doing so they risk foregoing the votes further to the left or right – a strategy that plays into the hands of the minor parties.
“The disappointing thing about major parties fighting out for the middle is that they become very similar and don’t release a lot of policy and they don’t lead with a firm, clear policy that will make a difference,” says Wilson.
“So, on the one side, you have Greens and on the other, you have Act where you get much clearer policy differentiation.”
This in turn means that voters looking for a clear policy differentiation could potentially gravitate toward these smaller parties.
And while Labour will be keeping an eye on this issue, Wilson says an ambitious Act Party could create some awkward choices for the National Party.
“David Seymour and Act clearly want to become a major party – and good on them, why wouldn’t they? Standing Brooke van Velden in Tāmaki is part of that strategy. The Greens are doing the same. They’re trying very hard to win Wellington Central.”
According to Wilson, the difference here lies in the ambitions of the two parties.
“It’s hard to say that the Greens are trying to supplant Labour. That might be a fantasy that some of them have, but there’s not much evidence that’s what they’re trying to do. Whereas Act clearly seems to believe that National’s time is up and they want the job.”
This creates an awkward position for National as it tries to appeal to the centre while not turning off voters further to the right.
Wilson says this is clearly reflected in the issue of race relations in New Zealand.
“Race has become a defining issue and it popped up obviously in Three Waters. And it also pops up in co-governance and Treaty issues, and concerns over there being a quota for Māori and Pasifika medical students. Some believe there are a whole lot of ways Māori are getting an unfair advantage that they don’t deserve.”
The question now is whether National leans into those views and supports them or allows the likes of Act and NZ First to snap up those voters.
So how will this play out? What are the risks and rewards at stake for National in the upcoming election? And how big could Act become if it does manage to tap into the anger of voters on the right?
Listen to the full episode of The Front Page to hear Wilson elaborate on all these issues.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am.
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