While the party vote is the most important vote in determining the outcome of the election, there are always some intense battles in the electorates.
It may be because of the seat’s strategic importance to a particular party such as Ilam in Christchurch, or because it pits high-profile electorate and list MPs against each other, or it might just be a grudge match.
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There are a few of those in this election to keep a close eye on tonight.
Act deputy leader Brooke Van Velden ran in Auckland Central in 2017, was elected in 2020 on the list after running in Wellington Central and is now contesting Rob Muldoon’s old seat, held by socially conservative Simon O’Connor since 2011. His majority is 8068. The seat would give Act a second anchor in the Auckland region to augment leader David Seymour’s Epsom seat. O’Connor, a former trainee priest and prison chaplain, was one of Parliament’s leading opponents of Seymour’s End of Life Choice Bill. O’Connor is No 54 on National’s list. A recent poll by Curia for the Taxpayer’s Union had O’Connor on 40 per cent and Van Velden on 38 per cent.
Green MP Chloe Swarbrick is fighting to hold onto only the second electorate seats the Green Party has held – after Jeanette Fitzsimons won Coromandel in 1999. She holds it with a majority of 1068. Her closest rival is considered to be National’s Mahesh Muralidhar, the CE of a venture capital firm.
The seat was usually a Labour stronghold until Nikki Kaye won it for National in 2008. When she resigned in 2020, Swarbrick - who was already a list MP - beat Labour’s Helen White, who is standing in Mt Albert this election. Labour’s candidate is software engineer Oscar Sims. A recent poll by Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union had Swarbrick and Muralidhar effectively tied on 26 per cent and 24 per cent with Sims on 12 per cent. But 29 per cent were undecided. Swarbrick is No 3 on the Green Party list and Muralidhar is No 43 for National.
This seat pits one of Parliament’s most experienced MPs, Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta, against one of the young candidates, Te Pati Māori’s Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke. Mahuta, aged 53, has been an MP since 1996 and has been Foreign Minister for the past three years. Maipi-Clarke is aged only 21. Mahuta did not want to go on the Labour list whereas Maipi-Clarke is No 4 on Te Pati Māori list and stands a reasonable chance of being elected. A recent poll by Curia for Whakaata Māori (Māori TV) put Mahuta on 36 per cent and Maipi- Clarke at 32 per cent with 14 per cent undecided.
The electorate is being contested by Hawera-based Te Pati Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Labour list MP Soraya Peke-Mason who has strong links to the Ratana church. Peke-Mason has gone list only. Stretching from Porirua, up through Horowhenua, Manawatu, Whanganui, Taranaki and King Country, the seat was held by Speaker Adrian Rurawhe who is list-only this election. A recent Curia poll for Whakaata Māori (Māori TV) had Peke-Mason on 34 per cent and Ngarewa-Packer at 29 per cent although it would be considered an upset if Ngarewa-Packer didn’t win.
Sitting Labour MP Kieran McAnulty is up against second-time National candidate, sheep and beef farmer Mike Butterick. McAnulty won in 2020 with a majority of 6545. McAnulty stood in 2014 and was elected for the first time in 2017 as a list MP. Since then he has risen up the party ranks and was promoted in the past term from chief whip to cabinet minister. He is a popular MP and is considered a rising star in Labour but that may not count in the voting booth. McAnulty is No 16 on Labour’s list and Butterick is at No 61 on National’s.
This is the big grudge match of the election, Labour vs Labour defector Meka Whaitiri. Whaitiri defected to Te Pati Māori in May shortly after being passed over for a promotion into cabinet under Chris Hipkins. Te Pati Māori’s candidate for Ikaroa Rawhiti, Heather Skipworth, was forced to stand aside for Whaitiri and Labour had to scramble to find a replacement. Labour selected former Ngati Porou rugby chief executive Cushla Tangaere Manuel. Whaitiri is No 4 on Te Pati Māori list and Tangaere-Manuel has decided to stay off the list. A poll by Curia for Whakaata Māori put Tangaere-Manuel ahead on 33 per cent to Whaitiri’s 25 per cent, but 29 per cent were undecided.
Formerly a battleground of three heavyweights from Labour, National and the Greens, Grant Robertson, Nicola Willis and James Shaw are leaving the contest to a younger political generation. Wellington City Councillor Tamatha Paul is taking on Labour list MP Ibrahim Omer, and National’s Scott Sheeran hopes to come through the middle. A poll by Reid Research for Newshub Nation early last month suggested it could be close. It put Omer on 30.6 per cent, Sheeran on 28 per cent and Paul on 26.6 per cent. Paul is not on the Green Party list, Omer is No 37 and Scott is No 45.
National deputy leader Nicola Willis switched from Wellington Central, where she stood previously to Ōhāriu, which had previously been contested for National by a relative unknown, Brett Hudson. Labour’s Greg O’Connor only just won it in 2017 after Peter Dunne retired but then he got a big majority of 11,961 in the post-Covid red wave of 2020. The fact that Dunne held the seat for 33 years -first as a Labour MP then as United Future leader - suggests it goes more for the person than the party, unlike Wellington Central which has been decidedly Labour for most of the past 40 years. O’Connor is not on the party list, Willis is No 2.
Another grudge match. The former seat of Trevor Mallard, it has been a red seat all through MMP except for one time, when it was won by National’s Chris Bishop in 2017, standing against Labour’s Ginny Andersen. She beat him in 2020 and since then, both Bishop and Andersen have become more important players in their respective parties. She became Police Minister and Justice Minister under Chris Hipkins’ leadership and he became No 3 in National’s caucus and National’s campaign manager under Christopher Luxon. Both are highly active and highly competitive. Bishop is No 3 on National’s list. Andersen is No 17 on Labour’s.
One of the biggest shocks of the 2020 election was senior National MP Gerry Brownlee losing the seat he had held safely since 1996. Labour candidate and midwife Sarah Pallet won it by 3463 votes. Brownlee is going list only, leaving Pallet up against medical researcher Hamish Campbell, and the leader of The Opportunities Party (TOP), Raf Manji, who ran second in the seat against Brownlee in 2017 as an independent. National has eschewed any electoral accommodation with TOP. If Manji won Ilam, the party would not need to reach the five per cent threshold. An early poll by Curia in August put Campbell well ahead on 43 per cent. Manji and Pallett were effectively tied for second on 18 per cent and 20 per cent but about 20 per cent were undecided. No major poll in the past three months has put TOP over 3 per cent. Campbell is No 63 on National’s list and Pallet is No 51 on Labour’s.
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