Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Deputy PM Winston Peters at CHOGM in Samoa last month. Photo / Pool
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Welcome to Inside Politics. The death of former National minister Nikki Kaye from cancer at the age of 44 was devastating this week. But the tributes to her were a reminder of what a great character she was and what an impact she made in her 15 years in politics. Cross-party work was a hallmark of her political modus operandi and something there could be more of.
One of the most moving tributes was from Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson, who is on leave battling cancer herself. She recalled taking Kaye to lunch to share her news before making it public. “You put your lunch down, stood up and just walked over to the other side of the table and hugged me silently for what seemed like the longest of time.”
It was a happy-ish first anniversary for the governing Coalition on Wednesday. The sun was shining in Wellington and the Reserve Bank cut the OCR by 50 points and hinted at another big cut in February. But conditions are forecast to be overcast. The bank has revised its growth forecasts – as Treasury is also expected to do in next month’s half-year opening of the books on December 18 – and the much-vaunted return to surplus in the 2027/28 year will almost certainly be pushed out.
Of course, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis claimed some credit for keeping spending and inflation in check and for the OCR drop. But the lower growth outlook was blamed on “international factors” – a term that was often met with derision by Willis when she was in Opposition. Jenée Tibshraeny has written a piece on why US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies may temper any celebrations mortgage-holders have over the OCR drop.
Political editor Claire Trevett and political reporter Adam Pearse had interviews with the three party leaders, Luxon, Winston Peters and David Seymour, about their first year in coalition and their plans ahead. Seymour told them he had been wrong about Peters and was able to work well with him in coalition. Leaders talking about each other is a fraught business, however. In another media interview, Peters damned Luxon with faint praise, saying he was struggling to bed into the role after having been elevated to the top job with little experience.
Labour is heading to Christchurch for its conference to begin the debate over tax policy that could determine its success at the next election and the ones beyond that.
There is almost no question that it will take either a wealth tax or a capital gains tax policy into the next election. At least the party is starting the process early and not making decisions on tax close to an election, as happened in 2011, 2017 and 2023.
There are plenty of revisionists in the party who believe Labour lost power last year because it didn’t go ahead with the wealth tax it had Treasury design, rather than the conga line of misbehaving ministers who shattered the public’s confidence in their ability to govern.
There are plenty who put the blame for the party’s defeat on Chris Hipkins’ decision not to use Budget 2023 to spring a wealth tax on the country. Hipkins said the party did not have a mandate to do that and he was dead right. It was six months from the election and, while it would not have taken effect until after the election, it would have been acting as a Government, not the Labour Party. There would have been outrage – but possibly not as much as there would have been over a capital gains tax. National has butchered Labour every time it comes up with a CGT policy. Adopting one again would be manna from heaven for National next election. The most important thing the party can do after it settles on its tax policy is to begin talks in Opposition with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori to try to inject some coherence into its tax stance.
As Thomas Coughlan reports, there will be moves by some at the conference to put the Labour leader into a policy straitjacket and remove the power to make captain’s calls.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters is continuing his exhausting travel schedule and was in Paris yesterday for talks with his counterpart, Jean-Noel Barrot, which covered the unrest in New Caledonia. He heads to Berlin next for talks with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and then London to meet with new Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Judith Collins last week attended an important event on the Defence Minister’s calendar, the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus held in Laos. She had meetings with both her China and US counterparts, though not together. China’s defence chief Dong Jun refused to meet America’s outgoing Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. Dong has since been placed under investigation for corruption.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis spent last week in the Antarctic, no doubt checking out the ongoing redevelopment of Scott Base, and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts is there this week – having returned from Cop29 in Azerbaijan – to have a look at the ice melt.
Greens co-leader Chloe Swarbrick was also at Cop29.
The Prime Minister is next week set to host Czech President Petr Pavel, a leader of growing importance in Europe. Pavel has been here before in his former capacity as former Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces and chairman of the Nato Military Committee.
Trade Minister Todd McClay is in frenemy territory with a visit to Vancouver, Canada, for a CPTPP commission meeting about how to handle applications to join the trade pact. “CPTPP is a gold standard agreement,” he said in his press release. It would help if Canada followed all the rules, and not just the ones convenient to it. New Zealand has issued dispute proceedings against the protectionist state for blocking dairy access previously agreed to and for failing to uphold the arbitration panel ruling against it.
National MP Scott Simpson and former Labour Defence Minister Peeni Henare have just returned from Canada, where they represented New Zealand at the Nato Parliamentary Assembly in Montreal. It is the first time New Zealand – a partner rather than a member of Nato – has been invited.
“The Government is backing a project to squeeze more value out of New Zealand blackcurrants” – Associate Agriculture Minister Nicola Grigg.
Why did Education Minister Erica Stanford apologise to Parliament last Thursday? (Answer below.)
Goes to Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters for his description of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to The Post: “He is struggling in the job. When I say struggling, not in a bad way.”
Goes to Christopher Luxon for his response. “I love Winston,” he told reporters yesterday. Possibly not in a good way.
ANALYSIS – interest rates: The Reserve Bank has cautioned borrowers to keep their expectations in check after it cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points.
Treaty rights: Do Māori have rights other New Zealanders don’t have? Legal experts explain what the Treaty of Waitangi says and why.
Health cuts: Health NZ is set to cut another 1478 roles, the Public Service Association says.
Regional funding: An Ōpōtiki mussel farm has received $52 million under the Government’s Provincial Growth Fund despite making losses every year.
Nikki Kaye: Former National minister Nikki Kaye died on Saturday at the age of 44 after a long battle with cancer.
OPINION – Nikki Kaye: “I feel loved” – Audrey Young reflects on her memorable last interview with Nikki Kaye.
Peters interview: NZ First leader Winston Peters says his first year working with National and Act has been a big improvement on his experience with the Ardern administration.
Seymour interview: Act leader David Seymour says he was wrong about Winston Peters and NZ First during the election campaign.
Luxon interview: “I’m really pleased” – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon talks about the coalition Government’s first year in power.
New Caledonia unrest: Foreign Minister Winston Peters has urged France to find “a new pathway forward” with its territory New Caledonia in a speech in Paris.
Charter schools: The first charter school to open under the Government’s new regime will be based on an Australian model.
Quiz answer: Erica Stanford muttered that former Labour minister Jan Tinetti was a “stupid bitch” after being pressed by her in Question Time. National standards are slipping.
For more political news and views, listen to On the Tiles, the Herald’s politics podcast.
Vaccine mandates caused huge pain to a “substantial minority”.