Te Pāti Māori coalition a drag on Labour - poll

Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Photo / Mark Mitchell

With the 2023 election shaping up as a battle between the Coalition of Chaos, and the Coalition of Cuts, a key question is whether the minor parties that prop up these two coalitions are at all off putting to the all-important median voter.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll attempted to answer that question, polling voters on whether they were more or less likely to vote for Labour or National if the only way the parties could get into power was through forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori or NZ First.

It found that for 49 per cent of voters, Labour only being able to “form a Government by doing a coalition deal with the Māori Party”, made no difference to their voting intention.

Twelve per cent of voters were more likely to vote Labour, while 31 per cent were less likely, giving the prospect of a Te Pāti Māori coalition a net -19 per cent impact on Labour, according to commentary released with the poll.

When split out by party, 17 per cent of Labour voters were more likely to vote Labour if Te Pāti Māori was the only possible coalition partner, and 12 per cent were less likely - although this figure comes with a higher margin of error.

For voters who were unsure which party they would vote for, 18 per cent said they were less likely to vote Labour if a Te Pāti Māori coalition was the only one on the table, 7 per cent said they were more likely to vote Labour and 61 per cent said it made no difference.

The poll also looked at the impact on National of a NZ First coalition.

NZ First has ruled out working with Labour, but a potential National-NZ First deal is on the table if NZ First makes it into Parliament.

Fifty-three per cent of voters said an NZ First coalition with National made no difference to their propensity to vote blue, while 14 per cent said they were more likely to vote National.

Twenty one per cent said they were less likely to vote National, giving a potential NZ First coalition a net -7 per cent impact on National.

National voters were 16 per cent more likely to vote National if an NZ First coalition was the only path to power, while for 65 per cent of National voters it made no difference.

Fourteen per cent of National voters were less likely to vote National if an NZ First coalition was the only thing on the table.

Unsure voters were 25 per cent more likely to vote National if NZ First were in the tent, while for 51 per cent it made no difference.

Just 8 per cent were less likely to vote National.

The figures have added significance after Christopher Luxon ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori after the election, bargaining that National stood more to gain by lumping Te Pāti Māori with what he calls the “coalition of chaos” than any post-election path to power is worth.

The poll was taken between May 31 and June 6, 2023, and conducted using a sample of 1000 respondents. The margin of error is 3.1 per cent.