Tamihere sets pace in polls

If you believe the polls, all political newcomer John Tamihere has to do to take the Maori seat of Hauraki for Labour is turn up.

Mr Tamihere, polling almost three times as much support as his nearest rival, is seen as a bright young prospect for the party.

But he would be the first to say that taking Hauraki will not be easy.

The electorate was established last year after an increase in registrations on the Maori voting roll.

Surveys point to New Zealand First's Josie Anderson as the likely runner-up. However, it would be a brave person to write off Alliance-Mana Motuhake candidate Willie Jackson.

A Marae-DigiPoll survey taken from October 29 to November 4 showed Mr Tamihere with 53.8 per cent support.

The next most popular candidate was Ms Anderson on 18.2 per cent, followed by Mr Jackson on 15.7 per cent.

While Mr Jackson has been endorsed by prominent South Auckland kaumatua, he could be penalised by the confusion over the Mana Motuhake-Alliance relationship.

Ms Anderson's work as the former chief executive of the Hauraki Maori Trust Board has given her a high profile in the electorate, which is made up of a 50-50 split between rural and urban, with the bulk of the voters in Auckland.

While Mr Tamihere has done work on Hauraki's Treaty of Waitangi claim, his profile is strongest in West Auckland, which is not part of the electorate.

Mr Jackson, whose profile is as high nationally as Mr Tamihere's, feels his work in South Auckland as an urban Maori advocate and union official gives him a real chance of taking the seat, or at least having a good go.

One possibility is that Ms Anderson could take the seat because of the split loyalties of urban voters between Mr Tamihere and Mr Jackson.

Both have dedicated themselves as champions of urban Maori issues, notably the distribution of fishing assets.

Mr Tamihere turned down a place on the Labour Party list, putting all on the line in the electorate race.

Mauri Pacific's Amokura Panoho has a recognised commitment to Maori economic development, with extensive community networks throughout the Auckland area.

National candidate George Kahi looks unlikely to cause any surprise, and while Mana Maori's Gareth Seymour has a history of standing up for the rights of individual Maori, mainly against his Tainui elders, he is also unlikely to worry the frontrunners.