KEY POINTS:
Political editor Audrey Young evaluates Labour's prospects of a fourth term
IN A NUTSHELL
Labour had been in Opposition for nine years by the time the Fifth Labour Government was elected in 1999 - six of them with Helen Clark as leader.
Since taking over as
Prime Minister 1999 she has run three minority Governments - in coalition with the Alliance and then Jim Anderton's Progressives.
The party now has considerable practice in MMP, having depended for power in a variety of arrangements on United Future, the Greens and New Zealand First.
It had a bad result in 1996 with 28.2 per cent of the seats, and improved on that in 1999 with 38.7 per cent.
On a wave support for Clark in 2002 and up against Bill English as National leader, the party increased its vote in its second term to 41.3 per cent.
It virtually held that when it secured a third term in 2005 with 41.1 per cent of the vote, up against a resurgent National Party under Don Brash.
Last election Labour won 50 seats (31 electorate and 19 list) - though has one less seat with the departure of Manager MP Phillip Field.
It lost four of the seven Maori electorate seats to the Maori Party.
The party has undergone a major rejuvenation in its parliamentary ranks without the disharmony normally associated with clean-outs. If the party can muster a reasonable showing at the election, it will have a large influx of new blood.
ASSESSMENT
The party has weathered controversies since the beginning of its third term, but not terribly well. Many of them relate back to the previous 2005 election, such as the public funding of the pledge card and Electoral Finance Act.
The political management skills normally associated with Prime Minister Helen Clark often deserted her. The David Benson Pope mess over political interference in the Ministry for the Environment, Trevor Mallard's fall from grace after a fight with Tau Henare and Labour's staunch defence of Winston Peters over the Owen Glenn donations affair all took their toll on the third-term Government.
On the plus side, a new generation of capable ministers emerged, such as David Cunliffe, Maryan Street, Shane Jones and Clayton Cosgrove.
Assets and liabilities
Prime Minister Helen Clark and Finance Minister and Deputy Michael Cullen are both the greatest assets and liabilities. They have become one of the most enduring and successful political partnerships in modern times.
They are Labour's equivalent of Jim Bolger and Bill Birch, but perhaps more successful given that Cullen was not moved aside for New Zealand First leader Winston Peters as Birch was. That was the fate of former Foreign Minister Phil Goff in Labour.
Clark is still remarkably popular as Prime Minister after three terms, almost equal-pegging with National leader John Key as preferred Prime Minister in the latest Herald DigiPoll.
She has consistently rated much higher than her party has in the same poll this term.
Cullen is hugely popular inside the party but not outside the party. Despite running sound finances under good economic conditions for nine years, getting debt down and savings up, he has been seen as having hoarded his surpluses for Government spending.
Achievements and failures
Clark has run complicated minority governments with a range of parties over three terms with relative stability. It also managed at the 11th hour to negotiate support from left-wing and conservative parties for an emissions trading scheme, the centre-piece of its climate change policy.
Without it, Labour's much vaunted sustainability agenda would have been a failure.
The party under-estimated - or ignored - the mood for personal tax cuts for at least three years but chose instead to implement policies under the Working For Families umbrella to lift the incomes of low to middle income families raising children.
But it fostered a positive relationship with business, with its business tax cut to 30 per cent and R and D tax credits and Fast Forward innovation fund.
Policies to watch for
Education, health and housing are core policies of a social democratic parties and Clark has signalled in the accompanying interview that they will form the basis of further promises this election campaign.
The Schools Plus policy will be built on, there will be more on housing affordability and primary health care.
The party has also had work done on the costs of a universal student allowance. But spending promises this election are bound to be more modest than last election's big-ticket items such as abolishing interest on student loans, and they would be phased in.
What they need to do in the campaign
Convince voters that experience is more important than a fresh face.
The party has already been successful in establishing "trust" as part of the election agenda and in creating questions around John Key.
But it will have to find a counter to National's claim after Monday's opening of the books that the legacy of nine years of Labour would be 10 years of projected deficits ahead.
Performance Rating: 5/10
