Rob Salmond: The true state of Labour

Labour Party leader Andrew Little and deputy leader Annette King. Photo / David Haxton, Kapiti News

Is the Labour Party pessimistic, or optimistic? Does it oppose change or embrace it? Is the movement marching forward or standing still? Answering these questions is important, because it helps us understand the engine room of the next government.

Recently on the Herald website, a disgruntled former Labour member said Labour was guided by pessimism, fearful of change, and going nowhere. I disagree.

Take home ownership, the political hot-topic of the year. Labour leader Andrew Little thinks home ownership rates really can go up again in Auckland, and across New Zealand. I'd call that optimism rather than pessimism. To get there, Labour's proposing big changes, for example a large-scale, government-led programme of house building, or big changes to our investment rules.

Not many accuse Labour of tinkering on housing - that critique is usually aimed at National.

The plight of regional New Zealand's another example. Little reckons our heartland towns really can get out of their current funk, and become potent economic forces again. For me, that sounds like more optimism. Labour's ideas for achieving that include major capital expenditure on rail links and ports. Doing that might also help New Zealand's economy diversify, becoming less dependent on dairy as new industries grow.

None of that's exactly clickbait for the tax-averse, intervention-weary middle ground in New Zealand politics. But Little thinks it's the right thing to do for the regions, so on that front it's doubters-be-damned.

Once you look at real examples of Labour's contribution to the public debate, it's hard to see where the pessimism argument is coming from.

That's true on questions of political strategy, too. Quin says Labour "has barely moved in the polls since last year's historic drubbing." Labour got 25 per cent in last year's election. Less than a year later, four of the five latest polls have Labour above 30 per cent. An increase of more than five points inside a year, with the Greens' vote steady or slowly increasing as well, isn't "barely moved." It's "solid early progress."

Quin does, correctly, that Little's decision not to pursue a Capital Gains Tax was motivated by electoral pragmatism. He also notes, also correctly, that Labour's position on the TPPA is a skeptical "wait and see" at the moment, not a definitive yes or no.

These are certainly shades-of-grey positions, the signpost of a party cognizant of both its principled starting point and the limits of what the public actually wants. Serious political parties always care about both these things. But those premises don't lead to Quin's pessimistic, fearful conclusion.

Many commentators have noted Labour's caucus is more united, more disciplined, than it has been since Helen Clark. For the first time in around six years, the leadership murmors have disappeared.

Why is all that? Because they're all so glum? No. Quite the opposite.

Of course, there's much hard work left to do. The left still trails the right in most polls. That cannot stand, but there are two years to turn it around. The early signs are positive.

Rob Salmond is a communications and analytics consultant, whose clients include Andrew Little.