Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her rapidly shrinking delegation will reach the White House tomorrow in the midst of a heat wave in Washington DC.
Ardern will meet Vice President Kamala Harris before meeting US President Joe Biden.
Her delegation was hit by Covid-19 just ahead of the meeting: Chris Seed, the chief executive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and her chief press secretary Andrew Campbell, both tested positive in San Francisco before leaving for Washington DC.
It will be the first White House visit for a New Zealand Prime Minister in eight years since Sir John Key went in 2014.
Some of the topics then will also be on the agenda now: free trade and China are among them but the context in which they are being discussed has changed significantly. Trade Minister Damien O'Connor is warning exporters they "need a Plan B" in case of geopolitical ructions from the US and China showdown in the Pacific.
The war in Ukraine, climate change, the long recovery from Covid-19, and the global economy and inflation are also likely to be on the table.
Two days before they meet, President Biden visited Uvalde to speak to the families of those killed in the shooting at an elementary school.
That has put the issue of gun reforms very firmly on the political calendar in the US as calls for action grow and Ardern has little doubt she will be asked about gun reforms.
While she has been in the US, Ardern has been repeatedly applauded for her own action to ban military-style assault rifles in the weeks after the Christchurch mosques attack.
Ardern has resisted saying what she thought the US should do, saying she can only share what New Zealand did.
She can't butt in - but she will have suggestions. Her suggestion will be to try to push through one meaningful measure - hers was a ban on military-style weapons - before public anger and shock subside.
That is the window of time in which it is politically difficult for lawmakers to oppose change. The harder, more detailed reforms can come later but as time passes, it becomes harder to get change.
Back in 1981, a company in the United States launched a product called I Can't Believe It's Not Butter. It was a spread that was supposed to taste like butter but wasn't.
Last week the United States delivered its sequel: I Can't Believe It's Not a Trade Deal.
That was in the form of US President Joe Biden's Indo Pacific Economic Framework. It was Biden's attempt to reclaim economic influence for the US in the Indo-Pacific region and to counter China's influence.
The trouble is that the IPEF tastes no more like a trade deal than I Can't Believe It's Not Butter tastes like butter.
It is missing the critical ingredient of a free trade deal: free trade.
It does little to improve access to the US markets for NZ goods and services, either tariff-wise or through non-tariff barriers.
The PM will push for the US to rejoin the CPTPP as well, but there is pessimism about the chances of that, despite some support for that in Washington and from the likes of the US Chamber of Commerce.
Trade Minister Damien O'Connor says the trade relationship is going well as it is - the US is our third-largest trading partner already.
"That's not to undermine the value of an agreement but there's no need for us to hesitate or delay progression of relationships in the US just because of the absence of a trade agreement.
"That would be the icing on the cake, but it's a very solid and growing cake."
What is left is to try to make the most of IPEF. That has been billed by Biden as an agreement to "help all our countries' economies grow faster and fairer" and address issues such as the digital economy, supply chains, clean energy, infrastructure, and corruption.
Ardern has voiced hope there may be room in that for changes to non-tariff barriers at least - and the card up her sleeve for that is infant milk powder.
The US has a domestic supply shortage after one of its largest manufacturers closed down. Fonterra has applied for emergency approval to export its products.
Infant milk powder can be a powerful leveraging tool in trade: mothers who are worried they cannot feed their babies are a potent force, wherever they are in the world.
It is why past infant formula contamination scares in China have caused such trouble.
A few days ago, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken delivered a major and occasionally chilling speech on the Biden Administration's approach to China.
In it, he described China as "the most serious long-term challenge to the international order".
Blinken said repeatedly that the US did not want military conflict and that co-operation with China was needed to contend with issues such as climate change and Covid-19.
He spoke about the Indo-Pacific "network" the US was rebuilding and said other countries were not being asked to choose between the US and China.
But the words he used made it clear those who did not would not necessarily endear themselves to the US.
"This is not about forcing countries to choose. It's about giving them a choice, so that, for example, the only option isn't an opaque investment that leaves countries in debt, stokes corruption, harms the environment, fails to create local jobs or growth, and compromises countries' exercise of their sovereignty. We've heard firsthand about buyer's remorse that these deals can leave behind."
Ardern has resisted being as loud or open in its criticism of China as Australia has been.
However, it is uncertain how long she will be able to hold that line. Ardern has, for example, all but said militarisation or any act of aggression by China is a line she could not tolerate crossing.
In case that cross-the-line-day comes, the Government is trying to open more markets for New Zealand exporters - the EU and UK trade agreements are among them and the US as much as possible.
It is also putting exporters on warning to at least have a Plan B in case China retaliates with measures that effectively block trade, as it has done with Australia.
Damien O'Connor said New Zealand has "a solid, mature and predictable relationship with China".
"We raise issues from time to time but they are our biggest trading partner. But if you are an exporter, if you had a big chunk of your produce going into one market in a world full of disruption, you should be ensuring you have Plan B and Plan C. Whether that is geopolitical, or something like Covid."
Ardern has moved more toward the US as New Zealand's concern has grown over China's actions in relation to Taiwan and Hong Kong - but also its recent moves in the Pacific region.
That has included a security agreement with the Solomons and a letter seeking interest from 10 Pacific countries in a broad trade, economic and security deal with China: its answer to the US Indo Pacific Strategy.
The US is very close to Australia and has so far focused its efforts predominantly on the larger countries in the region.
China, meanwhile, has focused its attention on the small countries.
New Zealand is more deeply and constantly involved in the Pacific than the US and that makes New Zealand an important sounding board on where things lie and what impact China's overtures might be having - and the US response.
After its on-off relationship with the region, Ardern will be pointing out that no country likes to think they are just a pawn in a chess game.
That means the US needs to actually build stable and lasting relationships with the countries there, rather than running hot and cold depending on what China was doing.
Pacific countries will understandably be sceptical if they believe the US is treating them as simply a tactic to try to stop China's growth and influence in the region.
O'Connor also raises this as an issue.
"The IPEF is the US' attempt to re-engage in a region where they've had strong links from time to time, but they've not been consistent. And they need to build those consistent relationships."
Unlike Australia, Ardern has resisted trying to openly criticise China or the Pacific countries considering China's advances.
She has instead asked them to wait until the Pacific Forum Leaders Meeting, which is now expected to be delayed until July.
She was hoping for those leaders to reach some consensus on China.
The invite to NZ:
It has been an eight-year gap since a New Zealand Prime Minster went to the White House, but it has been a 23-year gap since a US President visited New Zealand.
That was when Bill Clinton visited for Apec - hopes of a visit by Biden when New Zealand again hosted Apec last year were quashed because of Covid-19, which resulted in a virtual Apec.
Barack Obama only visited after leaving office.
The highest-ranked visitor since 1999 was Biden himself when he was Vice President in 2017.
There is pretty much a standing invitation for US Presidents to visit, but expect Ardern to suggest to both Harris and Biden that they take it up.
She has already done so for California Governor Gavin Newsom.
The President's invite will likely be a little more formal than the wedding invitation scrawled onto an Air NZ ad from an in-flight magazine that Ardern gave to The Late Show host Stephen Colbert.
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