He has clearly now decided that avoiding pre-emptively ruling out supporting the bill to spare himself any angst from Act leader David Seymour is simply not worth it. The angst on display at Waitangi as Luxon is trying to build trust among iwi was evidence of that.
So when he was asked if National would consider supporting it if there was overwhelming public support for it in submissions or the select committee, he again said a firm no. Asked if National would consider it if the referendum element was removed, again, a firm no.
Luxon himself denied he had hardened his position, apparently thinking he had made that clear from the start. However, he has previously left it hanging whether there was any chance National would support or oppose it after select committee.
That ambiguity was used by Seymour to find some hope, claiming he was sure that either public support or his own powers of persuasion would help ensure National would back the bill after that point.
It is about time Luxon took that step. Luxon’s speech at Waitangi raised eyebrows, partly because of the brouhaha around his rinse and repeat technique of re-using many of the same sentences he used in last year’s speech.
But what was significant was not what was used or re-used, but what was not mentioned at all - and that was his position on that Treaty Principles Bill. In fact, neither the bill nor the issues of the principles and the bill were mentioned at all.
Given the focus of the pōwhiri and most of the speeches that day were about that issue, it was a big hole.
Luxon’s speech at Waitangi was so unremarkable that apart from talking about the Treaty’s history, he could have been speaking at a Grey Power meeting.
That may or may not have been deliberate. He may have been reassured that the more subdued reception to his speech compared to the heckling and singing over Seymour’s and NZ First leader Winston Peters meant they were copping the flak for issues on the Government’s agenda. He may have thought he had inoculated himself from the issue.
However, it would eventually have landed on his doorstep. He is the Prime Minister.
The spotlight is currently on that Treaty Principles Bill, but there is a long line-up of other fraught issues in the coalition agreements waiting for their turn - the plan to scrap the Maori Health Authority, reform of the Waitangi Tribunal, a review of references to the principles of the Treaty in laws, paring back the use of Māori names for government agencies and plans to change programmes which are race-based rather than solely needs-based.
The Treaty bill will still cause a lot of damage before it can be dispensed with, including in trust. Luxon has pointed to it as being the cost of MMP - saying Act had it as a bottom line. But Luxon still allowed it to be included.
Technically, it could be done and dusted by the end of the year as Luxon clearly hopes.
But Seymour will not want it to be rushed through so quickly. There is talk about measures such as releasing a draft bill to get public input on the proposed principles before the final bill gets put before Parliament to vote on. That would effectively result in two rounds of public submissions.
Luxon might be able to avoid the law change, but not the debate in the coalition Government’s name. It is the debate that is divisive.
Yes, National voting against it renders it a dead duck bill. But there won’t be much peace until that happens.
By then, how long might the bitter aftertaste last?
