Prime Minister Christopher Luxon brushes off poll result as Kiwis deliver verdict on Budget 2024

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon wasn't fazed by the results of the poll. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is brushing off results from a new political poll as respondents doubt any benefits will come from Budget 2024.

The 1News Verian poll last night found support for the coalition parties had increased with National on 38% (up 2 percentage points on the last poll), Act on 7% and New Zealand First on 6% – also up 2 and back above the 5% threshold after dipping below it in April.

That would give the coalition partners 64 seats – four fewer than the Government currently has but enough to stay in power.

Luxon also stayed 5 points clear of Labour leader Chris Hipkins in the preferred Prime Minister rankings, holding steady on 23% with Hipkins up 2 points to 18%.

However, 1News reported more than 75% of poll respondents believed the Government’s tax cut-focused Budget, announced on May 30, would have no impact or leave them worse off – 24% thought the Budget would leave them better off.

In response, Luxon said to 1News: “I just say to you, I think I’m not worried about your poll or any poll, frankly.”

For the Opposition, Labour dropped 1 point to 29%. Te Pāti Māori was on 3% and the Green Party on 13% – down one. Should the three parties work together, they would reach 58 seats, not enough to form a government.

Other leaders to register in the preferred PM rankings included Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick (6%), NZ First leader Winston Peters (4%) and Act leader David Seymour (4%, down 1 point).

The poll of 1002 people was taken from June 15-19. Respondents were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). It has a margin of error of ±3.1%-points.

The poll followed two announcements from the Government concerning the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Covid-19 pandemic and the return of Three Strikes legislation.

Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden’s confirmation of a second phase of the inquiry also provided the first instance of a coalition party invoking the “agree to disagree” clause in the coalition agreements, with NZ First opposing the Government’s decision to continue with the current inquiry until November.

Both Act and NZ First had campaigned on wider terms of reference for the inquiry. The second phase would address vaccine efficacy and safety, the extended lockdowns in Auckland and Northland and the extent of disruption to New Zealanders’ health, education and business.

Van Velden maintained conditions within the coalition agreements had been met through the decision, outlining how the first phase would report back and wrap up by November while the second phase would continue through to February, 2026.

Central to Peters’ concerns about the inquiry was a lack of scope and chairman Professor Tony Blakely’s work with the previous Labour Government during the pandemic through his role as an epidemiologist.

Epidemiologist professor Tony Blakely was leading the first phase of the inquiry.

Blakely, in a joint statement with inquiry commissioner John Whitehead, didn’t address Peters’ criticism but acknowledged the Government’s reasoning behind the decision.

“Our current terms of reference are broad enough to allow us to look at a wide range of Covid-19-related topics, like mandates, lockdowns and social impacts, such as the impact on education and mental health.

“However, we recognise there are specific areas that people have said they would like considered and that’s been reflected in what has been outlined by the Government.”

Earlier, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee had announced a bill aiming to restore an amended Three Strikes sentencing law would go through its first reading this week as the Government pressed on with its law and order policies.

The Herald yesterday reported how the original law, repealed by Labour in 2022, put a serious straitjacket on judicial discretion by requiring judges to impose certain sentences for specific offences regardless of the severity of the offending: a first strike led to a normal sentence and a warning, a second strike led to a normal sentence but no parole, and a third one led to the maximum sentence with no parole.

Judges could allow for parole at strike three (and strike two for murder) under the “manifestly unjust” clause, but still had to impose the maximum sentence for the crime. The Court of Appeal later ruled that judges could use the clause to allow for parole at strike two as well, even though there was no specific wording in the law enabling it.

Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Under the proposal for Three Strikes 2.0, judges would be able to use the clause not only at strike two and three for parole, but also for the sentence length at strike three if the maximum sentence was deemed too unfair in the circumstances.

That essentially allowed a judge to impose a sentence as if Three Strikes didn’t exist, the only difference being that the offender would have a further strike and warning to their name.

Meanwhile, pressure continued to mount on the Government regarding its plan to replace the Interislander ferries following the Aratere running aground on Friday night, one of several incidents involving the Cook Strait ferries.

Luxon had long criticised the iRex mega ferry project for its cost blowout to be worth more than $3 billion from an original cost of about $700 million. The blowout was predominately due to the cost of the portside infrastructure needed to support the rail-enabled ships, which were going to be nearly 40 metres longer and at least five metres wider than those in the existing Interislander fleet.

However, the Government was unable to guarantee whether any purchase of new, smaller vessels would cost less than the fixed-price $511m agreed with manufacturers Hyundai for the mega ferries.

In response to questions from Labour transport spokesman Tangi Utikere, Minister for State Owned Enterprises Minister Paul Goldsmith said: “While the Government has not made a formal decision around the purchase of new ferries, as the Prime Minister has said, the Government is absolutely committed to ensuring we get great new ships on the Cook Strait.

“In doing so, we definitely expect the total cost of any such project to be significantly less than the $3 billion which was the cost of project iRex when it was cancelled by KiwiRail.”

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.