Poll: National support with women increases, overtaking Labour, despite abortion controversy

The National Party's support among women voters has not been harmed by leader Christopher Luxon's botched response to the US Supreme Court's overturning of the constitutional right to an abortion.

In fact, in July, National was more popular with women voters than Labour - although the win is not significant.

In the most recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, the personal polling of Luxon took a 5.6 point dive, which was put down to his flat-footed response to the overturning of Roe v Wade.

Luxon polled 22.4 per cent as preferred prime minister, netting just over half the support of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who scored 41.2 per cent, up 1.5 points.

But leaked polling data from the same poll, which splits the response by gender, shows that National's support edged up amongst women in July.

The increase, of just 1 point, is not itself significant and well within the margin of error. What is more notable is that National's party support among women did not tumble with Luxon's preferred prime minister polling.

Preferred prime minister is considered to be a "leading" indicator, meaning it tends to lead party vote by some months - the real test will be whether National's party support follows Luxon's personal polling in the coming months.

Luxon has overseen a revival in his party's support among women voters. In November 2021, the month before Luxon took over, National polled 28.3 per cent among women. In July, it polled 37 per cent among women. National polled 37 per cent among men in July.

Meanwhile Labour has seen a steady decline in its support with both men and women, mirroring the steady decline in its party vote from the highs of 2020.

In November 2021, Labour polled 50 per cent among women, it now polls just 36 per cent.

Overall, the most recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll had National scoring 37 per cent, down 0.4 points. Labour was up half a point to 34.7.

Act scored 10 per cent, up 0.6, and the Greens were up 0.2 points to 8.5 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori surged 1.9 points to 3.7 per cent, while New Zealand First was up half a point to 2.8 per cent.

Other parties, likely dominated by TOP, were down 3.2 points to 3.3 per cent (the Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll doesn't break out the minnow vote).

This would give National 47 seats and Act 13. They would need Te Pāti Māori's five seats to become the Government.

This is unlikely as Te Pāti Māori has said it would not want to be a part of a right-wing coalition, and Act is not keen on working with Te Pāti Māori either.

But Te Pāti Māori's support would not get an alternative Labour-Green Government over the line. Labour would win 44 seats and the Greens 11 on this poll - 55 seats in total.

The cost of living and the economy were the most important issues identified by voters in the poll, followed by health and housing.

The poll was conducted between Sunday, July 3, and Sunday, July 10, 2022. The sample size was 1200 eligible New Zealand voters (800 by phone and 400 by online panel), giving the poll a margin of error of 2.8 per cent.