Political winds blowing from fresh direction

By Rosaleen MacBrayne

Boundary changes have given the diverse Bay of Plenty electorate a more even spread of east and west this election, casting off Opotiki and Kawerau and encroaching on Tauranga territory.

The two sides have little in common apart from shared concerns about health, education, employment and law and order.

It is a large electorate, with everything from rural heartland and struggling townships to pockets of prosperity and rapidly developing urban areas.

Although Bay of Plenty should remain comfortably with National, the dynamic for Labour is the inclusion of all of Papamoa - Tauranga's biggest growth area - and Welcome Bay.

But National incumbent Tony Ryall, who has previously drawn his strength from the Whakatane rural area, has built enough of a profile in the western area to hold his own.

At the age of 35, Mr Ryall, the Minister of Justice, is back on the hustings for the fourth time, though the goalposts have moved yet again. The former accountant has been MP for East Cape, Eastern Bay and Bay of Plenty.

His popularity should see him through even if his party's vote falters.

The real battle is likely to be between New Zealand First and Labour for second place. Labour trailed a dismal third three years ago but is expecting an improved performance this time.

The unprepossessing, but effective, NZ First deputy leader, Peter Brown, gave the late Robert Anderson a fright in the previously safe National seat of Kaimai in 1993 and easily outperformed the Bay of Plenty Labour candidate in 1996.

Mr Brown, a former Tauranga shipping consultant who got into Parliament last election as a list MP, freely admits that he has been "a low-profile person," leaving the limelight to his party leader, Winston Peters.

Mr Peters' performance will no doubt flow on to his neighbouring candidate, but Mr Brown's hard work behind the scenes cannot be discounted.

Carrying the flag for Labour is union organiser Terry Hughes, who cut his teeth three years ago in the blue-ribbon Port Waikato seat. With lean resources, he has an uphill battle again this time but has been door-knocking diligently.