There are some signs around the world that young people's disengagement from politics is coming to an end - particularly in the recent UK and US elections. Such a "youthquake" seems unlikely to occur here in New Zealand, although an increased youth turnout could have a significant impact on this year's result.
Youth have been increasingly disengaged from electoral politics in New Zealand in recent elections. But what if there was a sudden turnaround in this trend, and young non-voters entered into politics? This happened last week in the British general election, with a "youthquake" having a significant impact on the result. We don't know the exact turnout for young voters, but there have been estimates that it has gone from 44 per cent in 2015 to about 72 per cent this year.
Supposedly, everyone would like to see an increase in youth participation here - in fact it's been one of the big concerns expressed so far about the coming election. The question of how to create a similar youthquake in New Zealand was dealt with this morning on TVNZ's Breakfast, and I was interviewed on the matter - see: 'They need to see politicians speaking about real issues, not sound bites' - how to get young Kiwis engaged in upcoming election.
I argued that the only way we're likely to see anything like the British experience happening here, is if political parties offer meaningful programmes of change that resonate with youth. I also cautioned against making the assumption that youth can be mobilised or drawn into electoral politics simply by parties fielding young candidates. Although it might have some impact, there simply isn't any strong evidence that young people will vote just because party candidates are also young.
And, in fact, some of the most interesting recent examples of politicians creating any sort of significant youth following have actually been "older white men" - such as Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn.
For a very interesting commentary on this, see Geoffrey Miller's blog post, Forget the spaghetti pizzas - it's substance voters are looking for. Miller argues young people should "Get ready for more spaghetti pizzas, selfies and walkabouts on university campuses", but, as with Dotcom's $4m spent "largely targeting the youth vote", such campaigning can fall on deaf ears if the substance of their politics doesn't resonate.
His conclusion on the British youthquake is this: "The lesson from the surge of young voters for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party in the UK is that to get young voters to vote, you need to give them something to vote for. In Corbyn's case, this was a traditional, ideologically-driven left-wing manifesto which included an end to student fees, nationalisation of railways and increasing taxes on the rich."
Miller also takes issue with the assumption "that young voters are attracted by young candidates". He suggests that Winston Peters, by this logic, should be deeply unpopular with youth: "With Peters being 72 and the face of the SuperGold card, most assume New Zealand First has no real hope of attracting a large pool of younger voters. Yet during this year's Orientation Week at Victoria University, Peters reportedly attracted hundreds of students on a summer weeknight to hear him speak. Whether or not Peters is able to add a significant number of young voters to his base remains to be seen, but it seems his age is no barrier to young people at least listening to what he has to offer. This in itself is no mean feat."
Also writing on this issue today, Grant Shimmin of the Timaru Herald asks: How do the opposition get out the youth vote?. He cautions against the lessons of the British youthquake having too many parallels here, but like Miller, he draws attention to Labour's 2005 election promise to scrap interest on student loans, as being a core reason for increased turnout that year.
Furthermore, he ponders: "Is it as simple as saying young people feel the system simply doesn't care for them? And therefore, that getting them out is nothing more than a case of showing genuine care about their needs in drafting policy?"
The Example of Britain's youthquake
The British youthquake, and its possible emergence here was covered very well yesterday by Cas Carter in her column, The youth vote that changed Britain's direction. She argues "A political party in New Zealand that uses British Labour Party tactics could well deliver a massive boost to its support and bring young Kiwis to polling booths."
Carter says "This year there are indications New Zealand political parties are waking up to this market, with Labour elevating youth-focused Jacinda Ardern and the Greens announcing a line-up of new youngies high up its party list. But that's not enough to win the youth vote." She points out that in the UK, the demographic qualities of Corbyn were no barrier to youth appeal, and she lists some of the devices and policies that helped create the youthquake.
Ultimately, it's the social, political and economic conditions in the UK that have probably played the biggest part in creating the youth voter surge. Nonetheless, Carter says "While we're not facing issues like Brexit here, there are still matters of huge concern to our young adults: the cost of education and housing, plus environmental sustainability for starters."
But if New Zealand does, somehow, end up with a surge in youth voting, which parties are likely to receive those votes? Blogger Martyn Bradbury gives his assessment - see: Which political party in NZ is best placed to benefit from the Corbyn Youthquake?. Rating their chances out of ten, Bradbury gives the Greens the best chance, with a 9/10 score. He reckons that "by promoting such incredibly talented young women into top positions on their Party list, the Greens are the best positioned political party to generate and build a Corbyn Youthquake."
Bradbury says Labour is next most likely, rating them 7.5/10 - and he puts their strength down to Jacinda Ardern: "You just can't underestimate the popularity that Jacinda has created with the youth vote. She's a totally different generation from most other politicians and young people see her as their ambassador in the halls of power. Her prominence in Labour's election advertising is purposely done because she rates through the roof. She will bring an enormous youth vote that simply hasn't had someone they identify with promoted with such prominence in an election campaign before." Also rated with a decent chance are New Zealand First, Gareth Morgan's TOP, and the Maori Party.
But Chris Trotter has challenged the assumption younger generations really do vote that differently to other age groups - see: Is There A "Youth Vote"?. He argues "In truth, the 'Youth Vote' has never been much more than journalistic shorthand. It was born out of liberal wish-fulfilment and made vaguely plausible by left-wing academics."
Therefore, for Trotter, the assumption that young people will vote Green is mistaken: "So, why the Greens believe that positioning twenty-somethings Jack McDonald and Chloe Swarbrick high on their Party List will attract the support of "Millennials" (the latest journalistic coinage) is anybody's guess. To be young does not necessarily make one Green - just ask David Seymour and Todd Barclay!"
Why youth are disengaged from New Zealand politics
