Political diary

SUNDAY

Fun with figures ... things got a little tetchy during Guyon Espiner's interview with Trade Minister Tim Groser on TV One's Q&A. Espiner referred to figures in a report by the New Zealand-India Joint Study Group exploring the implications of a free-trade agreement between the two countries. One scenario in the report talks of huge gains of $2.5 billion to New Zealand and an even more astonishing $12.6 billion for India, assuming a 100 per cent reduction in tariffs on two-way trade. When Espiner mentions the figures, a perplexed Groser says they must be wrong but agrees to have another look. Given New Zealand is negotiating a trade pact, Espiner suggests Groser should have a handle on such things. Says Groser: "I certainly do have a handle, I'm sure the figure is wrong." Groser blames the confusion on "these econometricians". It turns out the $12.6 billion is a ball-park figure based on trying to assess every conceivable economic transaction that might be affected by or flow from a free-trade deal, rather than a simple measure of how much exports between the two countries will rise.

MONDAY

More figures ... this time regarding the battle for weekend viewership between TVNZ's well-established politics programme Q&A and its new rival, TV3's The Nation. Q&A comfortably won the first round with around 143,000 viewers against The Nation's 76,000, according to figures supplied by AGB Nielsen Media Research.

WEDNESDAY

Gerry Brownlee may be wishing he had never come up with his "postcard on Eden Park" analogy to explain in layman's terms the likely impact of opening up some small pieces of the country's national parks and other "high value" Conservation Department-managed land to mineral exploitation. Is he right? It depends on which measure he is using: the amount of "high value" land set aside for potential mining as a ratio of all such land or as a ratio of all Conservation Department land. Or whether, as Brownlee seems to be suggesting, the actual area of land likely to be dug up as a ratio of the land which has been freed up for that purpose. Based on present mining levels, that would be some 280ha. On that measure translated to a rugby field, the postcard on Eden Park would be about 3 sq m. But Brownlee says he is talking about the whole Eden Park complex, stadium and grounds. And anyway, the analogy was meant to be treated as a "metaphorical" rather than an exact estimate.

THURSDAY

Oops. Phil Goff issues a statement claiming "the usually media-friendly" Prime Minister seems to have disappeared off the political radar in the past few days. "What could possibly be the reason behind this strange disappearance?" the Labour leader asks with a measure of sarcasm. Well, one reason was John Key paying his respects to the late mother of one of Goff's MPs. Key held formal press conferences on Monday and Tuesday, plus the usual pre-caucus meeting media scrum on Tuesday morning. On Wednesday - a day he usually spends in Wellington when Parliament is sitting - he flew to Hamilton for the tangi of Lady Raiha Mahuta, widow of one-time Tainui leader Sir Robert Mahuta and mother of Labour's Nanaia Mahuta. Key's flight back to the capital was cancelled because of Wellington's winds, thus preventing him from attending that afternoon's sitting of Parliament. What with the furore over mining in national parks, there is no question that this has not been one of the Government's better weeks - and prime ministers sometimes decline to do interviews for tactical reasons at such times. But Key has hardly disappeared off the radar - as Goff claimed.