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Nearly 10,000 people in vehicles fled from police in the past year - more than double the number recorded prior to the police changing their pursuit policy nearly two years ago.
At the same time, the number of those behind the wheel not identified has nearly tripled, while those being held accountable have stayed the same.
The Government has also announced a range of new powers to target fleeing drivers.
However, youth advocates and police representatives alike are urging caution in any changes, with the number of people dying in police chases dramatically reducing.
Between 2010 and 2020, 75 people died in police chases, and two in incidents when police did not pursue.
In December 2020, after a major police review, staff were told a pursuit was only justified when the threat posed by the vehicle prior to failing to stop, and the necessity to immediately apprehend the driver and/or passengers, outweighed the risk of harm created by the pursuit.
In the nearly two years since, there have been no deaths during pursuits, while four people have died in incidents after fleeing from police.
Meanwhile, data released to the Herald shows over that over the same period the number of fleeing driver incidents increased from 4846 - in the 12 months prior - to 9499 in the 12 months to November this year.
The number of incidents where the offender was not immediately identified nearly tripled, from 2419 to 6412, while police proceedings remained relatively steady, moving from 3374 to 3484.
Police Commissioner Andrew Coster. Photo / George Heard
The police said the increase was likely due to the change in policy. They did also change their recording processes after reducing pursuits to capture all fleeing driver events, which they said could have also contributed to the increase.
The Police Association supported the initial policy change, but president Chris Cahill said the numbers now “speak for themselves”.
“Clearly the policy isn’t working the way it was ever intended and has led to a change in behaviour by offenders,” Cahill said.
“I think it wrongly gave the impression that police cannot pursue in any circumstances. I think you have to say that that led to a change in [offender] behaviour.”
Cahill said there were likely other social factors, including Covid-19, a drop-off in school attendance and the recent spike in youth offending.
He said while the policy needed to be reviewed, it could not ignore the fact there were no deaths.
“We don’t want to go back to a situation where people are dying in fleeing driver incidents. Family of those that are killed are also seriously impacted, and so are our members involved.
“That’s why you can’t say the policies are a complete failure.”
But Cahill said it would appear the balance isn’t “quite right”.
“If a driver is not driving dangerously before police involvement, then the danger increases because of police involvement, that doesn’t justify a pursuit,” he said.
“But if the driver has already done a ram raid in a stolen vehicle, shown dangerous driving, well, the risk is already there and police should take action.”
Cahill said they also wanted to see a change in how officers were held accountable if things went wrong, with a focus on “lessons learned” rather than disciplinary action.
Auckland youth worker and rangatahi advocate Aaron Hendry said while he understood the tension police were wrestling with, increasing pursuits again made him “nervous”.
“We know in young people the prefrontal cortex isn’t fully developed, and more than likely, when they get chased, they will run,” Hendry said.
“They won’t necessarily think that through when they’re in a high-level, emotionally charged environment.”
Hendry said he’d prefer police look at more innovative ways of how to address the root causes.
“I don’t believe that the lack of police chasing is impacting those who are getting involved in these crimes.
“There’s a lot of environmental factors going around them, poverty being the largest one, mental health, illness, disabilities, lack of secure housing and supportive, loving environments.
“Changing this policy, in my view, will increase harm to the community and increase harm to young people.”
Data from police showed offenders were not predominantly young people, with more than half aged over 25.
Between November 2021 and September 2022, the median age was 23.
This included 27 per cent of those identified as aged under 20 years, 17 per cent between 20 and 24 years of age and 56 per cent aged over 25.
A spokesman said there was no evidence of any correlation to ram raids and a spike in youth offending.
Children’s Commissioner Judge Frances Eivers has been consulted on the changes and said police were clear there was a need for their policy to tighten.
While she understood the reasoning she said the benefit of pursuits “are far outweighed by the risk to innocent bystanders, other road users, police personnel involved, as well as the drivers themselves”.
She said in particular there was “no justification” to knowingly pursue a car containing children or young people under the age of 18 unless there were “very exceptional circumstances”.
“Young people are impulsive, and tend not to assess the risks before acting. This makes them more likely to flee from police, even if they have only committed a minor traffic offence.
“Police officers want to help turn young people’s lives around, not to have to tell a mother that her child will not come home.”
Coster said the Fleeing Driver Framework would provide clarity for staff on when a pursuit may be justified, including the weight given to the threat of further harm if the offenders are not apprehended immediately.
Feedback on the revisions has been sought from staff as well as key partners including the Police Association, Independent Police Conduct Authority, and Children’s Commissioner.
Implementation details were still being worked through, and further information would be released next year, he said. This would include new training.
The policy would be introduced before the middle of next year, Coster said.
Police Minister Chris Hipkins said such a policy change was an operational decision for police.
“The commissioner has been working really hard to get the balance right between preserving public safety, whilst also ensuring that the police do the job which we all rely on them to do, which is to apprehend people who are breaking the law.”
Alongside the pursuit policy review, the Government has announced a 12-month increase to the maximum driver’s licence disqualification period for a second offence of failing to stop or remain stopped - from 12 months to between 12-24 months.
An amendment would also be made to the Sentencing Act 2002 so that a vehicle could be forfeited on a conviction for failing to stop for police, meaning offenders could have their vehicle permanently removed and would not get any proceeds from the sale.
Finally, police would be enabled to impound a vehicle for 28 days if the owner failed, refused or provided false or misleading information about the identity of a fleeing driver.
Justice Minister Kiri Allan said: “If you are thinking of being a fleeing driver, there will indeed be tougher consequences”.
