Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she will stay in the room and listen if Russia speaks at the upcoming East Asia Summit and Apec, rather than walking out in a show of diplomatic disgust.
Ardern takes off this morning for the EAS in Cambodia and Apec summit in Thailand, groupings that include super powers US, Russia and China.
In between the summits, Ardern will visit Vietnam for a trade delegation while the leaders of the big powers meet in Indonesia for the G20 Summit.
The end-of-year diplomatic and economic summits are the most heavy-weight international groupings New Zealand belongs to – and Ardern said it would be a changed and “increasingly tense” environment since the last time the leaders met face to face in Chile in 2019 before Covid-19.
One of the main reasons for the increased tension was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.
Ardern said despite the freeze NZ has on diplomatic relations with Russia, she will not walk out of any speeches by Russia at the upcoming summits, as has happened at some earlier international meetings.
“My view is that in these summits, I expect them to stay at the table as we share our view, and so I intend to stay at the table as I hear others’ as well.
“We are very clear in our positioning. There is no question Russia knows New Zealand’s position. They were present when I spoke at the United Nations General Assembly unequivocally on the war in Ukraine, so they will know that. "
Ardern it was unclear if Putin would attend, but she did expect him to be represented. The diplomatic sanctions meant she would not seek a meeting or engage diplomatically with Russia.
“However, can you prevent passing someone in a hallway or seeing someone in a meeting room? No, you can’t prevent that entirely. If the opportunity ever arose where I were face to face with anyone in the Russian leadership, I would say exactly what I say publicly – the war is illegal, it must end. For the good of all of us.”
Western countries have taken a harder stand on that than many of the Southeast Asian countries in the groupings, who have been more muted in their criticism and sanctions and Ardern said that could make it hard to get consensus at the summits.
In May, Trade Minister Damien O’Connor was among a number of ministers from Western countries who walked out at an Apec trade ministers’ meeting and boycotted a gala dinner in protest at Russia. That meeting ended without a joint communique – the Western country ministers issued their own joint statement - and there are concerns the same will happen at the leaders’ meeting at Apec next week.
There were also walkouts by diplomats and politicians at other international events – from the UN to the G20.
There is also speculation Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could take part.
Ardern said part of New Zealand’s focus would be on climate change, which New Zealand got on the agenda when it hosted Apec last year.
However, it was likely the economic situation would dominate as inflation – and the Covid-19 and Ukraine economic impacts – buffeted all countries to varying degrees.
Ardern voiced concern about what that would mean for free trade, saying some countries tended to “retreat” from free trade at such times. She said countries were voicing concern about “food security” - shorthand for protectionism.
“As we see food prices rise, and knock-on effects from the war in Ukraine, some leaders are calling for what is essentially greater forms of protectionism - either walking away from existing trade arrangements or seeking not to engage in future trade dialogue.”
She said New Zealand’s view was that free trade was key to solving food issues.
“So it is a chance to reaffirm why it’s important for a trading nation like ours that that retreat does not occur.”
Regional issues – including the ongoing jostling between China and the US for influence in the Indo-Pacific and ongoing concern about violence under the military junta in Myanmar – will also feature large.
“We’ve stated firmly our position on what has occurred [in Myanmar] at the hands of the military, and the political imprisonments, and have called for a return to democracy. We will do that again.”
Who Ardern will meet:
Most of Ardern’s one-on-one meetings are yet to be finalised – China’s President Xi Jinping is likely to be one at the top of her list. They last spoke by phone in November 2021 - when New Zealand was hosting Apec virtually, but she last met him face to face in 2019 on her short 24-hour visit to China.
She said her messages would be “consistent”: focusing on trade and issues of co-operation but also raising human rights and the “strategic competition within our region”.
She had not sought a meeting with US President Joe Biden, but hoped to see him informally at the East Asia Summit.
She will be keen to hear what impact the mid-term elections might have on Biden’s programme of engagement in the Pacific. That includes the development of the Indo-Pacific Partnership, which NZ has signed up for while making it clear it sees it as an inferior offering to a free trade deal or the US signing up to the CPTPP.
Otherwise, Ardern said she would seek out newer leaders she had not yet met, such as newly elected Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos jnr, the son of Ferdinand Marcos. Marcos replaces the controversial Rodrigo Dutertes.
The only woman in the room:
That coup and imprisonment of Aung San Suu Kyi means Ardern will be the only woman leader at the summits, although US Vice President Kamala Harris will be standing in for Biden at Apec.
Ardern said at the past she had often been seated next to Suu Kyi. “I’m now the only woman at the East Asia Summit, so that weighs on my mind.”
“At Apec we talk a lot about inclusive growth, in my mind women in our region play a clear role in the economic recovery. Their ability to access finance, to access the labour market, to access education will be a centrepiece of some of my contributions. Because unfortunately there often aren’t women there to make those representations themselves.”
The summits will be the last trips of a year with a jam-packed travel schedule for Ardern, as a result of catch-up travel after the Covid-19 border closures and the resumption of the usual summit schedule.
Ardern said she weighed up the value to New Zealand in each trip. “I don’t take any decision to travel overseas lightly. For me, I have to have the ability to demonstrate the value to New Zealand before I take that opportunity.”
She said trade missions delivered to businesses and gave better access to other markets – and her travel emphasised that New Zealand was open again for tourists, international students and business.
Her visit to Vietnam will be to push exports and international education – Vietnam was the fourth largest market for international education and the delegation includes representatives from the likes of the University of Auckland.