Phil versus Phil in Roskill battle

The clash of the Phils in Mt Roskill should be a comfortable win for Labour high-flyer Phil Goff, despite the area's gradual move away from working-class roots.

Mr Goff, certain to be a senior minister in a Labour government, has the profile, electorate history and organisation on his side.

His main rival, National's Phil Raffills, the outspoken principal of Avondale College and an Auckland City councillor, has his work cut out to overturn Mr Goff's adjusted boundary majority of more than 3000.

Act has employment relations expert Max Whitehead, and New Zealand First's candidate is lawyer Chris Comeskey, but they are largely contesting the party vote.

The Alliance and the Greens are fielding promising first-time candidates in Sarah Martin, electorate secretary to MP Laila Harre, and Chris Hay, grandson of Keith Hay, who made affordable housing synonymous with the suburb.

The seat has been born again after it was swallowed up by Owairaka and New Lynn (which Mr Goff won easily) in the first MMP election in 1996.

An archetypal blue-collar, state-housing suburb, Mt Roskill was represented by an unbroken line of Labour MPs for 33 years until 1990.

As a junior minister in the reforming Lange Administration, Mr Goff was caught in the election backlash which swept Labour from power and installed National's Gilbert Myles. But three years later he was back with a comfortable 2205 majority.

This time the seat has gained a chunk of traditionally Labour-leaning Onehunga and a small part of blue-voting Epsom.

Inside the electorate there have also been changes. While pockets of Wesley and Blockhouse Bay remain solidly blue-collar, state-housing selloffs have seen younger, more affluent families move in.

The Manukau Harbour coastal belt through Onehunga, Hillsborough, Waikowhai, Lynfield and Blockhouse Bay has become prime real estate, prompting Act to claim it as fertile ground.

New Chinese immigrants have joined the established Indian population.

Traditionally, the Indian community has backed Labour, but the newer Chinese population is regarded as more business-oriented and right-leaning.

Mr Goff, regarded even by his opponents as an effective, hard-working local MP, said he was not complacent but expected a reasonable majority.

Mr Raffills, carrying out a limited campaign after being diagnosed with leukaemia, is relying on his 29 years living in the area to count with voters.