Parties in gear for battle to win seats

Deals with allied parties or straight-out bids to unseat MPs - BRIAN RUDMAN asks the strategists how they hope to deliver their parties the winning edge.

The MMP revolution not only changed the way we vote, it also turned the art of political campaigning upside down.

Marginal seats such as Eden, where elections were won or lost on the whim of the legendary "swinging voter," have disappeared from the strategist's map. Elections are now decided on the nationwide party vote, not on a handful of key seats.

"Instead of making sure the marginals are well-organised, you have to make sure the whole lot are now," says Labour campaign chief Mike Williams.

"For example, in the past we would never have cared very much about getting all the potential Labour voters in Glen Innes out to the polls, because they were in the safe National seat of Tamaki; their votes were never going to be enough to win the seat. "But now every vote's as good as every other vote. You can't ignore any seat."

Despite this change of emphasis, there are a handful of seats that all parties see as crucial to the election's outcome.

These are the seats occupied, or sought after, by minority party leaders: Act's Richard Prebble in Wellington Central, the Green Party's Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandel, the Alliance's Jim Anderton in Wigram and New Zealand First's Winston Peters in Tauranga.

Winning a constituency seat guarantees a party additional list seats in Parliament even if it has polled less than 5 per cent in the party vote.

With the four minor parties all polling perilously close to this threshold, winning a constituency seat could be a life-saver.

While the minor parties concentrate on winning a territorial seat, their rivals, both big and small, hover above, debating whether to help or hinder.

National, Act and United, for instance, appear to be close to a campaign "understanding" that maximises, rather than splits, the centre-right vote. National has already declared it will not stand against United leader Peter Dunne in his Wellington seat of Ohariu-Belmont.

Across in Upper Hutt, National and Act are trying to defeat Labour incumbent Trevor Mallard by calling on supporters to split their vote. The idea is to back Act with the party vote and tick National for the constituency MP. National and Act also seem near to declaring a deal involving Wellington Central and Tauranga. National will stand aside in

Wellington Central to give Mr Prebble a free run.

In return, Act deputy leader Ken Shirley will not stand in Tauranga, giving National's Katherine O'Regan a better chance of beating Mr Peters.

While not admitting a deal has been done, Act campaign adviser Nick Stravs says: "It's simply the best way to ensure Winston Peters does not become the queen-maker in the next Parliament."

National campaign director Jeff Grant says it took time to grapple with the idea that the party vote is now supreme.

This is his first MMP-style election, but he seems to be catching on fast. A rising star in the National caucus and senior whip until he retired in 1993 after two terms, Mr Grant's career was cut short by arthritis. Today he spends his time telling members the campaign is "all about the party, don't worry about anything else."

An advertising campaign strongly emphasising the brand "National" in coming months will underline this message.

Despite this, Mr Grant has also pin-pointed strategic constituency seats National must win. This, he says, is to ensure the party maintains a regional balance in Parliament.

He points to the present position in Wellington.

"One of our problems in Wellington is that we strategically don't have an MP in the centre of Wellington on a constituency basis. The public perceive party MPs differently to constituency MPs."

One of the big imponderables facing Mr Grant - one he admits having no answer to - is why New Zealand voters have taken, with such gusto, to splitting their votes between parties. "If we could work out why, the two major parties would find it much easier to run a campaign."

In 1996, nearly half of us split our votes. In Germany, under a similar voting system, the split averages about 15 per cent.

Until a few months ago, Mr Grant put it down to the one-off behaviour of an electorate experimenting with a novel new system. Now he is not sure.

He points to party polling that coincided with Mr Peters' Court of Appeal victory in the Winebox saga. Overnight "he just jumped from 3 per cent to 6 per cent and 9 per cent." New Zealanders, concludes Mr Grant, "like battlers." National raised $1.42 million for its nationwide campaign in 1996 and hopes to raise a similar figure this election. However, cash "has been slower coming in."

The campaign theme will echo the party's conference slogan: "National, a better way tomorrow."

"There's a real issue in New Zealand," says Mr Grant.

"We're coming to the year 2000 and we don't know what's over the cliff. It's not quite clear where we're going. We want to give people some visionary pathway to the future."

Labour's Mr Williams, relaxing in his sprawling Herne Bay home, describes his party's message in almost identical words.

"It's the vision thing," he says. "The future is with Labour."

He points to opinion polls showing 60 per cent of voters want a change.

"It's our challenge to get as much of that 60 per cent lined up behind us as possible.

"Our policy is very simple: the Government is worn out; the Labour Party has fresh ideas, is united and is ready to govern."

Like National, Labour also has a strategic-seat plan. It focuses on seats such as Wellington Central and Tauranga.

Unlike National, it does not involve accommodations with allied parties. Instead, Labour plans to unseat the MPs.

"Obviously, if Act falls below the 5 per cent mark - which it has done repeatedly over the past two years - and fails to win Wellington Central, then they are completely out of Parliament," says Mr Williams. "This is a good result for us. They're an Opposition party and they've said they're going to go into coalition with National."

Unlike Mr Grant, Mr Williams believes voters are regretting their flirtation with the minor parties and are polarising once more around Labour and National.

It is a trend acknowledged by Alliance campaign chief Matt McCarten, who points to the way the third-party vote has scattered as a result.

Like all the small parties, winning a constituency seat is a vital insurance policy against the 5 per cent threshold. However, with Mr Anderton's "big majority and big personal following," Mr McCarten does not see this as a worry.

Labour and the Alliance recently announced their willingness to work in coalition after the election. This is an acknowledgement by the centre-left, says Mr McCarten, that to defeat the centre-right parties they have to work together to increase their vote rather than fight each other.

"The Taranaki-King Country byelection last year made a lot of decisions for us. It showed that when we go straight to war with Labour we can do quite well. We went from 3 per cent up to 16 per cent and Labour dropped from 28 per cent to 17 per cent. "What it didn't do was increase significantly the centre-left vote."

This election, instead of battling Labour, the Alliance will target supporters it has lost in the past to New Zealand First and among the low-paid. Labour, Mr McCarten says, can concentrate on disgruntled National voters. If the Alliance sees itself as the conscience of the Left, Act plays the same role on the right. Over the past year, it has been positioning itself with "brand" advertising.

Now it is starting to target its crucial 15 per cent audience with a mix of direct marketing tools. Though polling about 5 per cent, campaign adviser Nick Stravs says, it is "on track for 10 per cent."

He sees winning Wellington Central as very important, not because he is worried about the 5 per cent threshold, but because "New Zealand is not quite ready for a list-only party. At the moment, if you're called a list MP it's slightly second-class." Mr Stravs is optimistic. Act, he says, is a strong alternative for National voters, who will find it difficult to vote for Labour after three terms of National in Government.

"We're the hormone replacement therapy for the National Party."

New Zealand First is running under the "Leadership We Can Trust" banner and will pursue this theme in what party president Doug Woolerton calls a presidential-style campaign.

He is confident of retaining Tauranga and is looking to keep Te Tai Tonga, now held by Tutekawa Wyllie.

The party will run a nationwide campaign of public meetings, spearheaded by Mr Peters.

Green Party co-leader Rod Donald says the Greens have a two-pronged strategy: win Coromandel and cross the 5 per cent threshold.

Languishing below that mark since their split with the Alliance, the Greens hope their rise from below 1 per cent to 3.1 per cent in the last New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll survey is the start of a trend. The Greens will focus their campaign on Coromandel, in the hope that Jeanette Fitzsimons, who came second to National in 1996, will win, dragging Mr Donald and others into Parliament with her.