Opposition leader flirts with death

Malcolm Turnbull. Photo / Getty Images

Malcolm Turnbull is still leading the Liberals' charge of the Light Brigade, surviving a powerful broadside by rebels determined to dismount him.

But it remains to be seen when the cannons will again start roaring: early next year, when he could be hit by "friendly fire", or in what at this stage looks like certain defeat in the federal election to come.

Either way, Turnbull is still charging into the killing zone.

Regardless of the rhetoric, Tuesday's astonishing free-for-all over Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's greenhouse emissions trading scheme was all about Turnbull's leadership of the Opposition.

There is no doubt that deep and passionate divisions over the ETS are rending the Opposition: many Liberals oppose it or want the legislation delayed, and the Nationals, the rural-based junior Opposition partner, reject it utterly.

But the deepest anger and the cause of the most trenchant opposition to Turnbull's successful bid to ramrod a compromise deal with the Government through his shadow cabinet and joint party room was his style of leadership. He came from the tough world of law and merchant banking and, as a newcomer to politics, displayed a ruthless form of ambition and management that has made him many enemies.

As Opposition leader he has driven his own agenda with scant heed to the party's generational divide or the need to finesse its mix of progressives and conservatives.

He has also made tactical blunders that have robbed the Opposition of opportunities to hammer the Government, and his performance in opinion polls has been little short of dangerous.

So far his greatest survival tool has been a general consensus that there is no clear, viable alternative - or at least none so far willing to take a job that is almost certain to hit ground zero at the next election.

Better to let Turnbull crash and then step in to pick up the pieces.

But the Liberal Party has not been in such chaos for many years, and the ETS debate has been so bitterly divisive that a sufficient number of Liberals may be convinced of the need to take him out in time for a new leader to rally the party for the election.

His slim 48-35 party room victory yesterday underlines his vulnerability.

If a challenge is to come, it will begin to emerge after the Christmas break as one of the three potential rivals with any chance of success judges that his time has come.

The three are former emissions trading spokesman Andrew Robb, families, housing, community services and indigenous affairs spokesman Tony Abbott - both of whom turned against Turnbull on the ETS - and shadow treasurer Joe Hockey.

Hockey has declared his full support for Turnbull, but could think again if the political wind changed dramatically. Robb and Abbott have been more ambiguous. The big winner so far is Rudd. If enough Liberal senators vote with the Government, he gets his ETS and a splintered Opposition.Greg Ansley