Opinion: Energy the goldmine NZ First will exploit in 2026 election campaign - Adam Pearse

KEY FACTS:

• New Zealand First leader Winston Peters will encourage the Government to adopt his $100b future fund policy, designed to progress infrastructure development.
• Protesters derailed the conclusion of the party’s conference in Hamilton after Peters concluded his speech.
• NZ First party leadership claim membership has doubled as it prepares for the 2026 election.

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.

OPINION

New Zealand First members could be forgiven for being a little confused as they arrived at the party’s annual conference on Saturday to an unusual sight; video clips of Act leader David Seymour.

Only 12 months on from Seymour and NZ First’s Winston Peters locking horns leading up to the 2023 election, it was somehow decided the party should show members snippets of a recent debate Seymour had with an iwi leader on his contentious Treaty Principles legislation - a bill NZ First did not support.

The clips were brief and soon replaced by NZ First promotional material. The Herald’s inquiries haven’t been able to produce a clear explanation as to why the party was seemingly promoting a political rival.

Intentional or not, it dovetailed quite nicely into the general theme of the conference that much has changed since the 2023 election.

A burnt-out membership after being booted from Parliament in 2020 is now energised by the return to Government with supporters generally pleased with how the party is working with National and Act.

NZ First members rejoiced in the party's return to Parliament. Photo / Mike Scott

Membership has doubled, according to the party leadership. It’s understood numbers have grown by a third in Auckland since the 2023 election.

An obvious priority has been placed on cultivating social media content. Several party staff at the conference were employed to capture images and videos that will no doubt be used in the future. The speed at which posts were made to party accounts over the weekend easily outpaced journalists.

Peters and the party have long complained about inadequate media coverage and with other parties like National and Labour ramping up social media engagement, NZ First appears to be following suit.

It’s been successful for the party while in Parliament. Minister Shane Jones’ command of the English language and willingness to insult anyone defending the scapegoated “Freddy the Frog” has been well-received online with some of Jones’ finger-wagging rants reaching hundreds of thousands of eyeballs.

By contrast, Peters has been largely absent on the party’s social media, in part due to a packed travel schedule as Foreign Minister.

But boosting Jones’ online presence comes as he gains traction decrying high energy costs and calling for urgent action to secure the nation’s supply, lest the country continue to shed manufacturing jobs.

NZ First minister Shane Jones has been a vocal critic of "profiteering" energy companies. Photo / Mike Scott

While the energy portfolio was actually held by National’s Simeon Brown, many would assume it belonged to Jones whose accusations of energy companies “profiteering” have only grown more vociferous.

The party’s internal polling reportedly showed a rise in support as Jones increased his focus on the country’s energy woes, a topic the party believes is a goldmine going into the 2026 election.

Jones forecasted as much on Saturday when he hinted NZ First would campaign on consolidating the energy companies and his desire for the Government to drill access to geothermal energy.

Energy costs was a primary issue for party members with two remits (policy proposals) geared towards lowering daily rates and targeting excessive profits within the industry.

It’s understood some energy remits were spiked ahead of the conference, including policies that advocated for the use of nuclear. While Peters had previously shown some support for such ideas, the remits didn’t align with New Zealand’s long-held anti-nuclear stance.

Jones’ challenge now is to stem the flow of business closures and restore confidence. Any support gained will surely dwindle if he fails to protect jobs.

The party faces a similar conundrum regarding the replacement of the Cook Strait ferries.

The Government is yet to decide what to do about the Cook Strait ferries. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The party’s commitment to new ferries being rail-enabled stands in conflict with signals from National, given the cost of upgrading port infrastructure.

If National puts its foot down and doesn’t enable rail, the issue seems destined for NZ First invoking the “agree to disagree” clause in the coalition agreement.

While it would give NZ First something to campaign on in 2026, the public’s growing frustration with constantly changing and delayed infrastructure projects - such as Dunedin Hospital - should tell parties promising to scrap one proposal only to start another isn’t sustainable.

NZ First looks set on continuing to employ culture war politics as part of its approach to the 2026 campaign, with conference guest speakers discussing “elite” indigenous and transgender athletes in women’s sport.

Today’s protesters and the aggression from supporters - while related to the Israel-Palestine conflict - should serve as a warning to those who seek support through antagonistic means.

As the party looks to 2026, the seemingly taboo topic of succession remains one the party appears yet to confront, with that ball firmly in 79-year-old Peters’ court.

NZ First Minister Shane Jones delivering his speech during the party conference. Photo / Mike Scott

Jones, armed with a few scribbles on a notepad, gave a rousing address for more than 20 minutes on Saturday that certainly had the air of leadership about it.

Peters has confirmed he’ll contest the next election but if there’s anything to take away from his praise of Mahathir Mohamad acting as Malaysia’s Prime Minister at the age of 93, it’s that Jones may have some years to wait.