On the Tiles: What can we expect from Budget 2023?

Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Photo / Mark Mitchell

While New Zealand is still six months away from the general election, one of the events that could determine the outcome of that election is just four weeks away.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson will unveil the 2023 Budget on May 18th, with economists, rival politicians, journalists and the general public eager to see what solutions the Government will offer to tackle the cost of living crisis and rising inflation.

It will be Robertson’s sixth budget since Labour took office in 2017, and the Wellbeing focus that has run through all of them will be tested with the ongoing financial crisis.

For three of those budgets, Craig Rennie served as a ministerial advisor in Robertson’s office. The now CTU economist joined deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan on On the Tiles, the New Zealand Herald’s politics podcast, to kick off a month of budget previews on the podcast.

Rennie said that at this stage, all the numbers would have been signed off, and ministry officials will be focused at this stage on writing up the documents that get released on May 18th.

While the details will remain under lock and key until 2pm on the 18th, some details are emerging - such as Robertson’s confirmation that the fuel tax subsidy won’t be extended again.

Rennie said that while the Government will need to be careful to avoid rising taxes or fees, there’s a more pressing case to be made to continue the half-price public transport fees - not only because the estimated $320 million cost was much less than the $1.4 billion on the fuel subsidies.

“You can defend it not only from a cost of living alleviation level, while also it’s a climate change issue, it’s a quality of life issues. There’s a range of other benefits to that.”

Rennie also does not expect any new taxes would be added pre-election, and that while the current tax system may be looked at, but it won’t be a focus in the Budget.

“From the Beehive’s perspective, Budgets are about political statements - so what is the political statement you want people to take away from this Budget? If it’s in line with the current messaging, it’s that it cares about the cost of living, that it cares about getting on with delivering on those issues New Zealanders care about, and having a really clear direction about what the government’s doing. And none of those things are a big tax conversation.”

Listen to the full episode of the On the Tiles podcast for more on what goes into shaping the Budget, the politics of it, other predictions, and insight on the lamingtons served on Budget Day.

On the Tiles is available on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes are available on Fridays.