On the Campaign: What happens now that the election is over?

National leader Christopher Luxon (from left), Act leader David Seymour and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. Photos / NZME

While we have moved past election day, there are still two key dates in this election cycle for people to keep an eye out for.

On November 3, the special votes, including overseas voters and people who voted outside of their electorate, will be counted and the final results of the election will be published.

And then on November 25, the Port Waikato byelection will be held, called after one of the candidates - Act’s Neil Christensen - died earlier this month after voting had opened. The seat was held by National’s Andrew Bayly, who is expected to take it again and bring another National list MP into Parliament.

While we wait for those dates, National and incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be negotiating with Act and New Zealand First over a potential coalition deal to form the next government.

Speaking to On the Campaign, NZ Herald deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan said they will be working to have things done by November 3, rather than holding out for the byelection.

“Everyone knows the Port Waikato byelection is going to go National’s way. I don’t think there’s any appetite to make the New Zealand public wait that long. I think that will backfire on all three parties if they hang out for that,” Coughlan says.

“So really the big date is November 3, and then after that I’d expect the new Government to head to Government House and to read their oaths and be sworn in.”

Coughlan said that big question for the next few weeks for National is if they want NZ First to be in coalition with them to serve as a buffer, in case of MPs going rogue during the next three years, or if they need NZ First to keep them and Act above the 61-seat majority threshold.

What is clear though is that Labour will need time to take stock of their losses and work out where to next. Coughlan said that their defeat on Saturday is historic for a governing party.

“In the MMP era, no major party has ever fallen out of government with a result quite like that. The worst result for a major party before last weekend’s election was Jenny Shipley, who fell out of government with 30.5 percent of the vote.

“No one has ever managed to fall out of government in the 20s.”

Listen to the full episode of On The Campaign for more on what will happen next for National, the coalition agreements, and Labour.

On the Campaign is available on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.