On the Campaign: Special votes - how they affect Election 2023 result

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon talks to media at Parliament after special votes are announced. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The final election vote count has confirmed National will be forming the next Government, but incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be dealing with an option he talked down during the campaign.

After special-vote results, National and Act’s combined majority from election night has reduced to 59 seats - but will rise to 60 if, as expected, National wins the Port Waikato byelection result later this month. This means NZ First will be needed to deliver a majority.

Speaking to On the Campaign, the Herald’s election podcast, NZ Herald political editor Claire Trevett said Luxon is unlikely to be joyful about having to work with Winston Peters’ party.

“Christopher Luxon was very, very hard on the campaign making it clear New Zealand First was a last resort, he’d only work with him if he absolutely had to, all that kind of palaver.

“Just like David Seymour is now having to do, he’s having to swallow some of those words and make it sound as if he’s a bit less aggrieved by the situation, but he has very much ended up with the very situation that he had tried so hard to avoid, which is needing New Zealand First to form a Government.

“So far, they’re all acting fairly growing up about it. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be easy for Luxon behind closed doors to get the three of them onto the page where they can agree.”

Trevett said while Luxon and Peters have had some informal dinners since the election, she expects Peters was waiting for the special votes to know how much clout he could have in the negotiations.

“What we can guess from what the others have said is that the National and Act agreement is pretty far along in terms of they’ve got things ready to go in so far as what their dream scenario is that will now possibly have to run through a slight vet check for New Zealand First.”

Elsewhere, five seats have ended up with narrow margins under 1000 votes, with National indicating they will seek recounts in Mt Albert and Nelson.

Trevett said the final decision from those parties would depend on if they want to risk picking up an electorate seat that costs them a list MP.

Listen to the full episode of On the Campaign for the full rundown of today’s big election stories.

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