On the Campaign, October 4: What you missed on the election campaign today

Shane Jones is hoping for a win in Northland for himself and NZ First. Photo / Tania Whyte

For the last century, National has only lost the Northland electorate, or its predecessors, three times - once in 1966 when Vernon Cracknell won it for Social Credit for one election cycle, a second time in 2015 when Winston Peters pulled off a by-election win for New Zealand First, and then again in 2020, when Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime pulled off a narrow victory.

Fast-forward three years, and it seems likely the seat will return to National, but voters have the option of having the balance of power for the whole country if they chose.

Analysing the state of the race for On the Campaign, the Herald’s daily news podcast, NZ Herald writer David Fisher said the polls are showing that Grant McCallum, a former campaign manager for former National MPs John Carter and Matt King, is the likely frontrunner.

Also running against him and Prime is former NZ First minister Shane Jones, who is making a strong case for himself and his contributions in the previous term of government.

“Jones would like everyone to remember he was Mr PGF [Provincial Growth Fund], he was the man who sent $650 million into Northland, which is an extraordinary amount of money for a region that has really been neglected decade upon decade by a National Party that knows it’s got it in the bag so doesn’t have to do too much for it, or so it seems,” Fisher said.

Fisher said that Jones called himself the “$3 billion man” at a recent debate, to highlight what power a vote in Northland for NZ First could mean for the region.

“It gives them the political power to twist some arms, or to strike a deal when the coalition deal is done. That’s something Jones very much wants voters to keep in mind.”

Whoever does take the electorate, Fisher said that the big issue all candidates have mentioned is infrastructure.

He said a good example of that is how Kerikeri has had dams since the 1970s when they were signed off by then Prime Minister Robert Muldoon, which has contributed significantly to the horticulture boom and its prosperity since.

“By contrast, Kaikohe, which is only 25 minutes away from Kerikeri, it only got a dam put in this year. The last water shortage that Northland experienced, people in Kerikeri were washing their cars with irrigation water, while the people of Kaikohe were walking with buckets down to the main street to fill them up from tankers.”

Fisher said that many candidates are telling voters to vote tactically if they want to get strong representation from their local MP, but it remains to be seen if that will be the case come October 14th.

Listen to the full episode of On the Campaign for the full rundown of today’s big election stories.

On the Tiles is available on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes are available evenings every weekday.