On the Campaign, October 10: What you missed on the election campaign today

There are likely to be more than the standard 120 MPs in the next Parliament.

The 54th Parliament of New Zealand could be made up of 122 or more MPs once the final results are in, rather than the usual 120.

The sudden death of Neil Christensen, the Act Party candidate for Port Waikato, has triggered a rarely-seen aspect of our electoral law, where a byelection must be held for an electorate seat if a candidate dies after nominations close but before the final votes are in.

The death means that instead of 72 electorate and 48 list MPs being determined once final votes are counted, there will be 71 electorate and 49 list MPs.

However, a 121st seat will be added when a byelection is held on November 25th. The National Party’s Andrew Bayly is the existing MP for the electorate and is also 15th on National’s list, meaning he will likely get into Parliament anyway this weekend, and could then potentially win Port Waikato again in the byelection, creating space for a new MP.

That’s not the only way an extra seat could be added, though. The Port Waikato case has also highlighted the overhang rule, which is a case in MMP voting systems where a party’s share of the overall vote would entitle them to fewer seats than they have won through the electorates.

This was last seen in the 51st Parliament after the 2014 election, which also added a 121st seat. The 49th Parliament, elected in 2008, saw 122 seats, the most so far under MMP.

This is something that could happen again this election if Te Pāti Māori win three or more electorate seats and maintain their share of the party vote that they are currently polling at.

So how does this by-election rule work in law, what does the overhang mean, and what about the Sainte-Laguë method that determines Parliament’s makeup?

In today’s episode of On the Campaign, the Herald’s daily election podcast, lawyer Graeme Edgeler and NZ Herald head of data Chris Knox join to discuss the complex laws and what they mean for our next Parliament.

Plus, Hawkes Bay Today editor Chris Hyde shares his insight on the electorate races in Napier and Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, which were both held by Government ministers at the start of the year and have now sparked fierce battles.

Listen to the full episode of On the Campaign for the full rundown of today’s big election stories.

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