Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Children’s Minister Karen Chhour and Police Minister Mark Mitchell announced new measures to combat youth crime.
The Government has set a target for a 15% reduction in the number of serious and persistent young offenders by the end of 2029.
Documents released to the Herald show a rising annual trend in the number of these offenders for three and a half years, but it has now reversed for consecutive months.
Most of the Government’s cornerstone policies on this issue are yet to be implemented, while one that ministers are exploring is raising concern: ‘more punitive measures for recidivist families’.
National, Act and New Zealand First took every opportunity to slate Chris Hipkins’ Government as “soft on crime”, and once inpower, law and order became a key focus for the three coalition parties.
One of the Government’s public service targets was to reduce the number of serious and persistent youth offenders by 15%, which had been steadily rising since the start of 2021. The last official update showed the trend continuing with 1118 such offenders in April, a 3.4% increase from the baseline figure of 1081 offenders (June 2023).
But the trend has shifted, according to official documents released to the Herald. The annual change has edged down for consecutive months: by 1% in the year to June, and by 4% in the year to July. The number at the end of July was 1037 offenders, 7.8% below the peak in November last year.
In Canterbury, where the number of these offenders more than doubled in the year to July 2023, the following 12 months saw a 9% drop. Even in the Bay of Plenty, where the number jumped 30% in the year to July, the trend is starting to fall.
If the trend continues, the Government will already be quarter of the way towards its target, with five years to go to achieve it. This could lead to an even bigger drop in the number of offences, because those at the serious end of the spectrum commit a disproportionate amount of crime.
Has the apex of rising youth crime since the Covid pandemic been past?
“While the trend is looking positive, it’s too early to claim success and we need to stay focused on this and keep working to ensure this trend continues,” Minister for Children Karen Chhour told the Herald in a statement.
“We are already seeing positive results and with the expansion of programmes such as Fast Track, and the development of military-style academies, this Government is sending the message that it intends to be tough on crime and get better, safer communities.”
Those policies, however, are yet to be implemented. The Government’s expansion of Fast-Track to more 14- to 17-year-olds isn’t scheduled to roll out until December, and while there is a boot camp pilot underway (for 10 offenders), legislation is still being put together for the military-style academies.
The number of serious and persistent youth offenders peaked at 1125 in November 2023, falling to 1037 in July 2024. This represents a quarter of the progress towards achieving the Government's goal of a 15% reduction by June 2029. Source: Justice Sector Ministers Meeting document
So the trend reversal appears to be independent of the Government’s key policies to tackle youth offending, which also include:
A serious and persistent youth offender (aged 10 to 17) is defined as having committed three offences in 12 months, with at least one of them punishable by up to seven years’ jail.
This group is different to the Young Serious Offender (YSO) category, who will be eligible to be sent to a boot camp under upcoming legislation (aged 14 to 17, with two court-proven crimes punishable by up to 10 years’ jail). This is expected to capture only up to 100 teens a year, so the boot camps are “unlikely to have a significant impact towards the target in the short term”, officials said.
The number of serious and persistent young offenders has been rising following the arrival of Covid, a pattern not unique to New Zealand. The annual increase for the 14-17 age group for 2022/23 was 26%, while for the 10-13s it was 4%. Their most common offence was burglary/unlawful entry.
“We know that many young people in our country were impacted by lockdowns and a sense of social isolation, and that this once-in-a-generation pandemic placed unprecedented pressures on families, over the past year and a half in particular with increased costs of living,” said Chief Children’s Commissioner Dr Claire Achmad.
But the figures for the year to July tell a different story. The number of offenders in the 10-13 age group fell by 19%, for 17-year-olds by 7%, and for those aged 14-16 by 1%.
Achmad was hesitant when asked what might be behind the trend reversal.
“At this stage, we can’t draw attribution to any one specific new policy here. We need to probably take the time to understand more about what could be feeding into this.”
In the year to July 2024, the number of serious and persistent youth offenders jumped by 30% in the Bay of Plenty. In Auckland there was a 10% decrease, while in Canterbury there was a 9% decrease. Source: Justice Sector Ministers Meeting document
Nor did she want to attribute anything specific to the stark rise in the number of offenders in the Bay of Plenty: 30% in the year to July. Even here, though, the trend is tracking downwards. The rise in the year to June was 41%.
In Auckland, the number of offenders dropped by 10% for the year to July, while in Canterbury the drop was 9%. This follows a more than doubling of the number in Canterbury for the 2022/23 year.
“In Christchurch, there was a more punitive approach to youth crime than the rest of the country, particularly around car theft,” said Arran Jones, chief executive of Aroturuki Tamariki/the Independent Children’s Monitor.
“While I can’t hand-on-heart say there’s been a shift in approach, we heard from people raising this as a concern in the community and calling for alternative interventions. So that drive to seek less punitive sentences could be what you’re seeing in the data now starting to have an impact, but it’s early days.”
The number of new entries into this cohort of offenders has also been trending down since July 2023, when there were 86 new entries. This July there were 55, while June had the lowest number of new entries (49).
The latest police data also shows a diminishing number of ram raids: 13 in August, 14 in July, and 17 in June. The monthly total peaked in August 2022, when there were 86.
“Are we now moving into a new phase? I do suspect that we could be looking here at a continuation of that pre-Covid trending down,” Achmad said.
This was echoed by Jones: “We saw a bit of a spike post-Covid. It’s good to see that maybe the [pre-Covid] decline is returning.”
A Government supporter might say that policies to ease the cost of living - such as tax relief, ECE reimbursements, and lowering inflation - could be filtering through to the declining numbers, but Achmad was sceptical.
“I spend a lot of my time out around the motu. Things are really tough for many families and whānau right now. The children and young people feel that too. That’s the reality of the picture that is playing out, still, right now, and we shouldn’t lose sight of that.”
It is also possible that the previous Government’s prevention-based policies, such as Fast-Track and Better Pathways/Kotahi te Whakaaro, are coming through in the numbers.
In the year to July 2024, the drop in the number of serious and persistent youth offenders by age group is 7% (17-year-olds), 1% (14 to 16), and 19% (10 to 13). Source: Justice Sector Ministers Meeting document
Fast-Track is a cross-agency, community-led response for young people apprehended for a serious offence, such as ram-raiding. A 2023 evaluation found that the rates of re-referral (31% for those aged 10-13, 13% for those aged 14-17) suggested “a lower rate of recidivism than would be expected for both groups without Fast-Track”.
The previous Government wanted to expand the programme to more 14- to 17-year olds, which the current Government is continuing with $7.7 million in Budget 2024. However, the Herald has been told that a focus on core policing could see a reduction in police involvement with Fast-Track, which is already happening with mental health callouts.
Fast-Track sprang from Better Pathways/Kotahi te Whakaaro, a response to children aged 10-13 years who were apprehended for a serious offence. It works with the offender as well as their whānau to understand the root causes of offending.
“Kotahi te Whakaaro is pointed to as a bit of a leading light: about an 80% reduction in reoffending for young people involved,” Jones said.
“While I couldn’t put my finger on why there’s a decrease in offending, some of these programmes on the face of it appear to be making a difference.”
Chief Children’s Commissioner Dr Claire Achmad. Photo / Mark Mitchell
But the capacity for such locally-led programmes is “limited”, according to Oranga Tamariki officials, who identified this as one of the risks to hitting the 15% reduction target. Capacity is arguably further hindered by the cuts to social providers earlier this year.
Chhour said it wasn’t just Oranga Tamariki’s responsibility to provide the support needed to meet the target.
“Oranga Tamariki is responsible for the children in its care, and those that come to its attention. The entire Children’s System requires the support of other government agencies, NGOs and individual communities,” she said.
“I’ve asked Oranga Tamariki to dig deeply into root causes, be innovative, and be disciplined in directing resources to where they will have the greatest impact on outcomes.”
But Achmad, who used to be chief executive of Te Pai Ora Social Service Providers Aotearoa, said she has seen “no evidence” of the minister’s claim of under-delivery to justify the cuts.
“And I have still not seen clear evidence that those decisions have been made with the needs and the rights of children and young people, first and foremost,” Achmad said.
“Also noting that many of these services that experienced a reduction or a cut to their contracts, they’re operating in rural and hard-to-reach areas. Often, they’re the only service that provides that particular support with a preventative focus.”
Minister for Children Karen Chhour. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Punishment for ‘recidivist families’?
The documents released to the Herald also reveal that, in August, ministers asked Oranga Tamariki officials for the “development of advice on more punitive measures for recidivist families”.
Chhour wouldn’t elaborate on what this might mean, saying only: “While Cabinet is yet to make any decisions, we will be exploring a wide range of options, including punitive measures against parents who are failing in their duty of care.”
Achmad said she wanted to understand more about the intention.
“I urge policies that focus on strengthening families, building on their innate strengths - which all families and whānau have - so that all children can grow up flourishing and safe in the care of their family or whānau.
“This is what a children’s rights approach requires. I don’t think punitive approaches will help anyone here.”
Oranga Tamariki officials also identified “a lack of alignment across targets”, which could see trade-offs that “negatively impact children and young people, particular those in care”.
Asked to elaborate, an Oranga Tamariki spokesperson said that the Government’s nine public service targets were, in fact, aligned.
“The document reinforces the need to ensure agencies’ responses and efforts in achieving those targets are also aligned,” the spokesperson said. A group of deputy chief executives is leading this work.
This problem is alluded to in a 2021 academic paper on Social Investment, where Sir Bill English is quoted saying: “The hardest job is not actually solution-finding. Those emerge. It’s changing existing institutions to accommodate those solutions.”
Achmad was pleased to see the aspects of the Government’s approach that are focused on prevention, including Social Investment 2.0 and the expansion of Fast-Track.
Despite the fiscal restraint across all government departments for the foreseeable future, she said it was a no-brainer to invest in early intervention for vulnerable families, rather than “criminalising children or their families”.
“That doesn’t help society in the long term. They need more support, not less,” she said.
“In tightened fiscal times, like at any time, it is so important we see investment that is sustained, enduring and adequate in supporting children and young people. A child who is born today is very likely still going to be alive in the year 2100. So an investment today in children truly is an investment in the future of our society, of us as a nation.”
Arran Jones, chief executive of Aroturuki / the Independent Children’s Monitor. Photo / Mark Tantrum
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the Press Gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.
