Two new polls show Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori can form Government, New Zealand headed in wrong direction

Labour leader Chris Hipkins is closing the gap on Christopher Luxon in the preferred PM rankings, according to two new polls. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Two new political polls show the left bloc of Labour, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori would have enough support to form the next Government, while also suggesting more people believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The latest 1News-Verian poll found support had dipped for the three coalition Government parties, who could only muster 60 seats in Parliament, not enough to meet the 61-seat majority required. However, a combination of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori did reach the 61-seat threshold.

It followed a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll earlier today that also found the left bloc could form a government.

The 1News-Verian poll, conducted between February 3-7 with a margin of error of 3.1%, found National had dropped 3 percentage points from the outfit’s last poll to 34%.

Labour had jumped 4 points to 33%, the Greens were steady on 10%, Act was up 1 point on 9%, New Zealand First was down 1 point on 5% and Te Pāti Māori was down 3 points on 5%.

Based on those numbers, National would earn 43 seats, Act 11 and NZ First 6, equalling 60. Labour’s 42, the Greens’ 13 and Te Pāti Māori’s 6 gave them 61.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the Government has a lot more work to do to improve the economy. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Labour leader Chris Hipkins was closing the gap on National leader Christopher Luxon in the poll’s preferred Prime Minister rankings. Hipkins was up 2 points to 17% while Luxon had dropped 2 points to 22%.

Of the 1000 poll respondents, 50% believed the country was headed in the wrong direction, 39% believed it was headed in the right direction while the remaining 11% didn’t know or didn’t say.

Hipkins told 1News he believed New Zealanders had seen enough of the coalition Government.

Luxon, who had earlier acknowledged the summer had been “tough” for New Zealanders, told 1News his Government had a lot more to do.

“It’s about growth, growth, growth.”

Act leader David Seymour believed people would be voting on the economy but was confident the Government parties would fare better as the economy improved.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, released this afternoon, found support had risen for both major parties since the last poll in January – National getting a 2.3-percentage-point boost to 31.9% and Labour inching up 0.4 points to 31.3%.

The Green Party jumped more than any other party, rising by 3.7 points to 13.2%, while Act (0.8-point drop to 10%), New Zealand First (1.7-point drop to 6.4%) and Te Pāti Māori (0.9-point drop to 4.4%) fell.

Based on those numbers, the coalition parties wouldn’t be able to form the Government as they could only muster 59 seats, two short of a 61-seat majority.

However, a potential coalition between Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would achieve the 61-seat target on these numbers.

The poll was conducted between February 2-4, closing the day before the parliamentary pōwhiri at Waitangi and ahead of the celebrations for the national day. A total of 1000 people were polled via landline, mobile phone and online. It had a 3.1% margin of error.

Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi (left) and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Photo / Marty Melville

More people believed the country was moving in the wrong direction, according to the poll. About half of respondents believed New Zealand was headed in the wrong direction, while 34.2% supported the country’s direction. That gave a net result of -15.8%, down 1.8 points on the last poll.

Like the 1News-Verian poll, the gap between Luxon and Hipkins was closing in the preferred PM rankings with Luxon dropping 3.8 points to 20.7% while Hipkins had increased 2.3 points to 17.6%.

Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross said the results signalled the Government’s failure to “fix the current economic bonfire”.

“It’s no coincidence the proportion of people who think New Zealand is heading in the right direction keeps plummeting.

“If a poll showing they’d lose power if there was an election held today isn’t a wake-up call, nothing will be.”

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.