New poll shows Labour at 17-month peak while National’s support recovers

Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon both dropped in the preferred Prime Minister ratings. Photo / Mark Mitchell

• The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll shows Labour at 31.5% and National at 38.8%.
• National would need Act’s 11 seats and NZ First’s eight to form a government.
• Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins both dropped in the preferred Prime Minister ratings.

The Labour Party continues to gain support as National rebounds to register close to 40%, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll.

The poll, conducted between November 6-10 and released this afternoon, showed Labour at 31.5% – an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the last poll in October. It was the party’s best result in the poll in 17 months.

National had also increased by 3.9 points to 38.8%. It was almost a complete recovery from the 4.1-point drop National suffered between the September and October polls.

The other four parties in Parliament all decreased in support in the latest poll. The Green Party was down 1.1 points to 9.3%, Act was down 1.2 points to 8.5%, NZ First was down 1.1 points to 6.5% and Te Pāti Māori was down 0.5 points to 2.5%. There were 3.4% of respondents were undecided.

On those results, National would hold 48 seats and would require Act’s 11 seats and NZ First’s eight to form a Government. Labour would occupy 39 seats, the Greens 11 and Te Pāti Māori six – as long as the party expectedly held an electorate seat.

Chris Hipkins' Labour party had risen to its highest result in the poll in 17 months. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Both National leader Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins had dropped in the preferred Prime Minister ratings. Luxon was down 1.2 points to 26.5%, while Hipkins dropped 1.4 points to 15.5%.

Act leader David Seymour held steady at 7.4%. NZ First leader Winston Peters dropped 2.1 points to 6.3%. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick took a 4.7-point hit to register at 5.2%.

During the polling period, Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill was introduced ahead of when it was expected, receiving widespread criticism from Opposition parties and Māori organisations.

The poll was conducted with 1000 respondents. It had a margin of error of 3.1%.

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.