This is the first Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll since the hīkoi to Parliament. That saw tens of thousands of New Zealanders march in the streets, primarily against the Treaty Principles Bill, stewarded by Act leader and associate Justice Minister David Seymour. Te Pāti Māori is one of the most vocal critics of the bill and was heavily involved in organising the protest.
On these results, National (44 seats) and Act (17 seats) could just govern with 61 seats. NZ First would receive seven seats.
Labour would have 34 seats, the Greens would have 11, and Te Pāti Māori would get seven. These calculations assume that all electorate seats are held.
It means the current government parties - referred to in the poll as the centre-right - would receive 68 seats, while the centre-left would get 52.
In the preferred-Prime Minister stakes, National’s Christopher Luxon is up a touch. He’s on 27.1%, up 0.6. Labour’s Chris Hipkins is up 4.4 points to 19.9%.
While Act is up, its leader Seymour is down. Seymour has fallen 1.6 points to 5.8% - the same as New Zealand First’s Winston Peters, who is down 0.5 - and Chlöe Swarbrick is at 4.5%, down 0.7.
The polling found the economy (40.2%) was named most as one of people’s top three issues, followed by the cost of living (37.4%), health (34%), education (17.5%), Treaty issues (17.1%), law and order (15.8%), and employment (13.2%).
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday, December 1 and Tuesday, December 3, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
