The contentious postponement of a Pacific-led mission to investigate the unrest in New Caledonia is likely to hang over Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s first Pacific Islands Forum.
Luxon travels to Tonga’s Nuku’alofa on Tuesday before the forum’s leaders’ retreat on the nearby island of Vava’u, where he will get his first taste of the summit’s unique format that allows Pacific leaders to converse without their respective officials present.
It will be a significant challenge for Luxon, who only made his first official trip as PM to the Pacific in June this year, but Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ extensive travel to 14 of the 17 Pacific nations has strengthened New Zealand’s reputation in the region.
Peters arrives before Luxon in Tonga, leaving New Zealand later today with a raft of Pacific leaders from Cook Islands, Niue, Vanuatu, French Polynesia and Tokelau - as well as the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres after his second-ever visit to New Zealand.
Peters, who will attend the forum’s opening ceremony and leaves before Luxon lands on Tuesday evening, told the Herald the postponement of the New Caledonia mission days out from the forum wasn’t ideal.
“This does not help. No, of course it doesn’t.”
It was a sentiment echoed by Massey University senior lecturer Dr Anna Powles, an expert in geopolitics, security and conflict in the Pacific, who believed the issue would be top of mind for Pacific leaders.
“There’s a great deal of frustration felt by the New Caledonian government so we may very well see an airing of those frustrations at the forum, the leaders’ retreat particularly.”
The mission, requested by New Caledonia’s President Louis Mapou, was proposed to assess the fallout from months of violence in the French territory after a law change in Paris extended voting eligibility to more island residents. The change was opposed by pro-independence groups, which claimed it would marginalise the indigenous Kanak population.
The protests led to 10 deaths, including eight civilians and two French military personnel. According to RNZ, it was estimated that more than 800 buildings and businesses had been looted and razed by rioters, with unrest still active in some spots.
France declined the request of pro-independence Kanak leaders for the referendum to be delayed so local mourning customs could be followed. As such, pro-independence forces boycotted the vote. Turnout reached just 44% and 97% voted against independence – much higher than the two previous referendum results which just surpassed 50%.
On Wednesday, forum chairman and Cook Islands PM Mark Brown confirmed in a statement the mission had been postponed after Mapou and other New Caledonian leaders “identified a number of issues regarding due process and protocol”.
Powles described New Caledonia’s central issue as France “effectively controlling who [the mission leaders] could meet with, thereby seeking to control the narrative”.
Peters said he took Mapou’s concerns about the mission parameters seriously but spoke of his doubts the mission would have gone ahead at all.
“I wasn’t surprised [by the postponement] because there was such little time to put it together,” he said.
“I think that you could judge by the speed by which things were done that the establishment may have been defective because they didn’t have enough [time] to discuss it.
Peters said he hadn’t engaged with Roger-Lacan but hinted at his sympathy for those criticisms.
“Sometimes, it’s been my experience in foreign affairs as a minister, it pays to talk to the boss.”
Powles expected Mapou to use the leaders’ retreat to convey his views free of France’s involvement.
“This really speaks to that tension that we have here is that France is seeking to control the narrative and control the outcomes, but the New Caledonian government is wanting to get down to business as usual with the forum family as part of the Pacific.”
Alongside New Caledonia, issues pertaining to climate change, Australia’s Pacific policing initiative, Japan’s release of nuclear wastewater into the Pacific Ocean, Fijian PM Sitiveni Rabuka’s Ocean of Peace plan, the Blue Pacific 2050 strategy and Tonga’s ongoing recovery from a 2022 volcano eruption would likely feature.
Also of note would be the continued soothing of tensions following the return of five Micronesian countries to the forum after they split in 2021 over the election of the forum’s former secretary-general Henry Puna.
Peters had recently completed a tour of three Micronesian states: Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia and Marshall Islands.
While he reported “excellent discussions” were had, Peters said at least one of the leaders had blamed New Zealand for its involvement in Puna’s election - a claim Peters strongly denied.
“In the first five seconds of this conversation, [I said], ‘I’ll stop you right now, don’t be rude, go and check the record’ ... we voted the other way.
“They’ve got it clear as daylight now.”
In an apparent show of goodwill, Peters had arranged for an NZDF plane to transport the representatives of the three countries to Tonga, touching down yesterday.
Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.