KEY POINTS:
Less than two weeks out from election day, Labour is struggling to erode the fortress of support National has built up, NZPA's rolling poll shows.
Since the NZPA rolling poll began on August 27, National has had a handy party vote lead, enough to grab a majority with support only from ACT.
Now that United Future has indicated that it too backs National, the right wing majority has increased a further seat to 64, in what would be a 124-seat Parliament.
As the average of the last six published polls, the NZPA rolling poll smooths fluctuations.
It showed National on a slow decline, but still with 47.9 per cent party vote support - good for 61 seats in a 124-seat House - ahead of Labour's 35.2 per cent.
National ally ACT was on 1.9 per cent, the Greens were gaining strength at 7.5 per cent, with United Future at 0.6 per cent, the Maori Party at 2.5 per cent, and New Zealand First at 2.9 per cent.
NZ First will have to win an electorate seat, or more than 5 per cent of votes cast to return to Parliament.
Tauranga electorate polling has leader Winston Peters behind National candidate Simon Bridges.
But were Mr Peters to find a way back into Parliament it would be a blow to National, which has ruled out working with him.
If NZ First was to win Tauranga it would secure at least four seats, a tally that would bolster the left and give the Maori Party the balance of power.
* NZPA has allocated the Maori Party six seats - based on current polls in the Maori electorate seats.
United Future and the Progressives were assumed to hold one electorate seat apiece.
NZPA rolling poll (with seats in brackets)
October 28
Labour 35.2 (44)
National 47.9 (61)
NZ First 2.9 (0)
ACT 1.9 (2)
Greens 7.5 (9)
United Future 0.6 (1)
Maori Party 2.5 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
October 15
Labour 35.7 (45)
National 48.2 (60)
NZ First 2.9 (0)
ACT 2.0 (3)
Greens 6.8 (8)
United Future 0.4 (1)
Maori Party 2.3 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
October 1
Labour 36.1 (45)
National 49.2 (62)
NZ First 2.9 (0)
ACT 1.7 (2)
Greens 5.9 (7)
United Future 0.4 (1)
Maori Party 2.5 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
September 17
Labour 36.4 (45)
National 50.1 (63)
NZ First 2.5 (0)
ACT 1.6 (2)
Greens 5.3 (7)
United Future 0.3 (1)
Maori Party 2.6 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
September 3
Labour 35.3 (45)
National 49.8 (63)
NZ First 3.7 (0)
ACT 1.7 (2)
Greens 5.3 (7)
United Future 0.3 (1)
Maori Party 2.7 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
- NZPA
