National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls

National is extending its lead over Labour, with support for the party lifting two points to 38 per cent, a new poll shows.

Labour’s support fell one point to 29 per cent. The figures come from Talbot-Mills’ poll for corporate clients. Talbot-Mills runs a separate internal poll for the Labour Party.

The Greens were steady on 12 per cent, while Act fell one point to 7 per cent.

NZ First was on 6.2 per cent, Te Pāti Māori polled 4.9 per cent, and Top polled 1.4 per cent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

The poll was taken between February 1 and February 10 and included the period around Waitangi Day, where the Government’s approach to the Treaty of Waitangi was front and centre. It follows a recent Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll that had Act far higher, at 13.7 per cent, and the Greens lower on 9 per cent.

National leader Christopher Luxon was ahead as preferred prime minister at 27 per cent, no change from the previous month. Labour leader Chris Hipkins was down three points to 23 per cent.

A commentary released with the poll noted the national mood seems to be shifting in favour of the new Government.

The right track/wrong track metric showed 43 per cent of people thought the country was on the right track, compared with 41 per cent of people who thought the country was on the wrong track. It is the first time the poll has recorded a net positive “right track” performance since June 2022.

Right track/wrong track is a key leading indicator of political fortunes for a Government. If the country feels positively about its direction, it is likely to be supportive of the parties that govern it.

The poll commentary noted the change in mood since September 2023, the last weeks of the former Government, when 35 per cent of people polled said the country was on the right track, compared to 59 per cent who said it was on the wrong track.

Another key indicator remained negative for the Government. Twenty-five per cent of people rated the economy as “excellent or good”, compared to 73 per cent who rated it as “not so good” or “poor”.

Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.