Mood for change delivers Christopher Luxon an election night National-Act Govt but may need to call NZ First’s Winston Peters

New Zealand has voted for change and granted National Party leader Christopher Luxon the Prime Minister’s office but with a nervous wait ahead before he will know whether he needs to pick up the phone to NZ First.

The election night result has given National and Act a majority – but only just. They have 61 seats between them.

And National’s campaign chair believes the final election result in three weeks’ time may see some seats flip back to Labour.

Chris Bishop told RNZ the decision to call Winton Peters will be a call for Luxon to make.

“But as the on the day votes came in and specials were yet to be counted, our vote may diminish.”

Last night, Peters said “if we can help, we will” if National and Act lose votes on the special votes or if there is a larger overhang in Parliament because of Te Pāti Māori’s resurgence.

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The election delivered the return of NZ First, a triumphant Winston Peters saying “they’re not laughing now, are they?.”

Election 2023 New Zealand First Duke of Marlborough Hotel in Russell Winston Peters Northern Advocate photograph by Michael Cunningham 14 October 2023

It was a pasting for Labour, which lost more than 30 seats sending them back to Opposition after two terms in government and losing some of the safest Labour seats.

However, the victory on the night was Luxon’s and he will now become Prime Minister just three years after entering Parliament.

In his election night speech, Luxon said he had spoken to Act leader David Seymour, and on current numbers it appeared National and Act would be able to form a government.

He also congratulated Peters, and said he appreciated Peters comment that he was willing to help if needed.

He said he was humbled by the support for National, but also energised by it.

“We all share an interest of living in a safe, stable country that celebrates fairness and wants the best for every New Zealander.”

“It’s what unites us that matters to me,” he said. He offered a special thanks to everyone that voted for National.

“For all those that didn’t vote for National, we won’t let you down either,” he said.

On the campaign, Luxon had said he would pick up the phone to Peters only as “a last resort” and had asked voters to deliver him the certainty of a simple National-Act government.

With 90 per cent of the vote counted, National and Act had 61 seats between them – enough for a majority. National is also likely to pick up another seat in the upcoming byelection in Port Waikato.

However, the resurgence of Te Pāti Māori in the Māori seats could deliver a further overhang of two or three seats – meaning a majority of 62 or 63 could be needed.

That means if National and Act drop back on the final vote count – which includes special and overseas votes – it could be close call and Luxon may need to call Peters. The special vote count has favoured the left historically.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins concedes the election. Photo / George Heard

A clearly disappointed Labour leader Chris Hipkins did not make any comments about his own future as leader, saying he had spoken to some of his team and “decisions about the future are for another day.”

He told party supporters in Wellington late last night that he had rung Luxon to congratulate him and would ensure there was a smooth transition to a new government.

“When the tide comes in big, it almost inevitably goes out big too. But the Labour Party is still here, we are not going anywhere and we will get up again like we have many time before.”

“We now have a new and important role in Opposition – to hold the government to account and fight for those who stand to lose from their proposed cuts.”

He said he had known it would be an uphill battle when he took over the job earlier in the year.

“We were swimming against a mood for change, and ultimately clearly that was very strong.”

NZ First leader Winston Peters said if National did need NZ First’s help, he was there. However, in a gracious speech thanking the party’s volunteers and supporters before it became clear National and Act would only have 61 seats, he indicated they may be in Opposition.

“We’ve always known that in great democracies, the people who are elected must be held to account. Our purpose is to keep them honest and to raise the roof when others won’t raise a finger. And I promise you that’s what New Zealand is going to get out of NZ First as far as tonight’s result is concerned.”

He later said his number one objective had been to get back into Parliament rather than to get into government. “You can’t do one without doing the second.”

Green Party MP Chloe Swarbrick speaks at Green Party election night. Photo / Michael Craig

Labour’s drop delivered a boost to the small parties, changing the political landscape on the left. The Green Party got 14 seats and took three electorates: Auckland Central, Wellington Central and likely Rongotai.

Some of Labour’s longest standing safe seats are at risk of changing hands to National: Labour’s Helen White is holding onto Mt Albert by the slimmest of margin – the seat once held by former PMs’ Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark. Another Auckland stronghold Mt Roskill has gone to National, while Te Atatū and New Lynn may also follow.

The Greens and Te Pāti Māori took other Labour seats: Te Pāti Māori was in line to take four or five of the seven Māori seats – including Nanaia Mahuta’s stronghold of Waikato-Tainui, a seat it has never won before.

Two seats – Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau – were close. However, Ikaroa-Rawhiti stuck with Labour, picking Cushla Tangaere-Manuel over incumbent Meka Whaitiri – who had defected from Labour to try to turn the seat over.

Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the NZ Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.