Mega-poll has Labour ahead

By COLIN JAMES

Winston Peters' declaration of support for whichever of National or Labour gets more seats would, if carried into effect, reduce the election to a contest between those two parties.

Labour currently leads that race, as it has for almost all of the past three years.

In a Herald poll of polls up to yesterday's Herald-DigiPoll, Labour has 37 per cent and National 32 per cent.

Labour has dropped only one percentage point during the campaign. National has dropped three points, thanks mainly to the sharp fall recorded in this week's CM Research poll.

Even with the addition of the Alliance's 8 per cent and the Greens' 3 per cent (both up one percentage point in the campaign) the Labour side would have only 60 seats - one short of a majority. And that depends on the uncertainty of the Greens winning Coromandel.

Labour has work to do over the next fortnight to win a clear majority and not lose its tax rise and re-regulation of the labour market and ACC to "issue-by-issue" voting by New Zealand First (steady on 6 per cent since the campaign began). The bland Labour campaign needs some bite.

That message is even sharper for National. Even with Act still climbing (10 per cent, up two points in the campaign) and a one-seat "overhang" boost from United, the National side is still well short of 48 per cent worth only 53 seats.

Eight seats for New Zealand First make up the balance of 121.

The campaign has been one of clear distinctions: the big old parties falling, the two extremes (Act and Greens) rising, the Alliance recouping a fall in September, and New Zealand First becalmed.

The old wisdom says voters will soon head back to Labour and National. If that is looming, we have yet to see it glint in the polls.

* The Herald poll of polls is a four-poll rolling average of the nationally published surveys: Herald-DigiPoll, Colmar Brunton for Television One, CM Research for TV3 and Insight for National Business Review.

The reading at any date is the average of the four most recently published polls. This may sometimes contain two editions of a poll because they are taken at intervals. The latest average is made up of two DigiPolls and two CM Research polls.