Manurewa

Even though his electorate has some of the highest crime statistics in South Auckland, Police Minister George Hawkins looks set to retain the seat he has held since 1990.

Hawkins' optimism shows in his aversion to the party list. He even aims to expand on the 67 per cent vote he attracted in 1999 after favourable boundary changes and rapid population growth. It seems most parties agree, because although he faces a large lineup of candidates, none can boast bigtime name recognition.

Manurewa was once based around long-established middle-class housing that was an urban island in an essentially rural landscape.

But a huge number of arrivals in the past 10 years has turned it into the third most ethnically diverse seat in the country, with a rapid influx of young, immigrant families moving into new low-cost housing developments.

It is also unique as the only urban general electorate with a Maori population of more than 15,000. Add in the usual Manukau mixture of unemployment and low incomes and you have a rich vein of left-leaning voters. But the Alliance and Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition candidates will be focused on lifting their party votes rather than personal success.

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