Manukau East

The battle for Manukau East is a three-way fight between sitting MPs Ross Robertson (Labour), Arthur Anae (National) and Matt Robson (Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition).

But it will be a phoney war. The boundaries and names have changed, but the electorate is still largely the area Robertson has held a mortgage on since 1987. In 1999, he won 55 per cent of the vote. So it's little wonder he no longer bothers seeking a place on the party list.

But his big-name opponents will be chewing their nails. Robson needs Big Jim's name recognition to attract about 1.5 per cent of the national party vote to squeak in, and National's polling means Anae's 28th spot on the National list may have him in the market for a new job after July 27.

Anae's victory hopes slumped even further when rapid population growth forced boundary changes, sending part of National-leaning Howick over to the new Clevedon seat.

But Labour will be hoping the changes improve its party-vote result. Despite Robertson's personal pulling power, Labour drew only 45 per cent of the party vote in 1999. The Howick influence gave Act and National their best results in South Auckland.

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