Key electorate: Whangarei

In the first of a series on electorates that need to be watched in the buildup to the general election, Angela Gregory picks that the contest for Whangarei will be colourless but close.

And the Whangarei seat was won by ... default.

In a lineup bereft of arresting personalities, that is the rather bland scenario emerging.

But the void left by larger-than-life retiring MP John Banks was always going to be cavernous.

The National Party might secretly welcome the departure of the love-him-or-hate-him, outspoken, often outrageous "Banksie."

But many in the electorate have come to expect tough talk from their local representative. The soft style of National's candidate, slightly built,well-mannered Phil Heatley, could not be further from Mr Banks' full-blown rhetoric, and the 32-year-old newcomer risks appearing weak by comparison.

Mr Banks does not pretend he has kept the seat warm for National six terms on from when he first won Whangarei in 1981.

Earlier this year, amid rumbles about Mr Heatley's performance, he delivered a stinging reminder that the seat was once held by Labour (between 1972 and 1975) and there would be no sleepwalk to victory for National.

The marginality of the electorate was already highlighted in the last election when New Zealand First candidate Brian Donnelly trailed Mr Banks by just 383 votes.

To add to National's concerns, voters took a dim view of Mr Banks when, shortly after the October 1996 election, he began hosting the breakfast show on Radio Pacific and, soon after, packed his family off to a new home in exclusive Paritai Drive overlooking the city's waterfront.

The National Party does not like to be reminded of that problem.

During her September visit to Whangarei, leader Jenny Shipley squashed any questions about whether constituents felt betrayed by Mr Banks and/or National.

"No one has raised that with me except reporters. I don't believe that," she snapped.

Mrs Shipley is mistaken. At the time, Whangarei people talked of their shock and disappointment at Mr Banks' decision, and they still bemoan his perceived desertion.

At a lunch with the "leaders and business people" of Whangarei, Mrs Shipley exhorted the guests to support the "young and smart" new National candidate, an agricultural engineer.

She explained how, back in 1987, she too had once been a "green" candidate in Ashburton, and the "best thing" the sitting National MP had done was to leave town two years before the election, giving her time and space to build a profile.

Naturally Mr Heatley also buys into this theme.

His mantra goes: "I am Phil Heatley, I am young, I am Whangarei born and bred, my wife is from Whangarei, our families are local, we have just had a baby and I am here to stay."

Meanwhile, large photo advertisements of Mr Banks (blue surrounds but no confusing National Party logo) with contact phone numbers have appeared in the local newspaper. Has he not left town after all?

Mr Heatley is confident of winning, picking that voters wary of minor parties will flee back to the two majors.

But there has been negative publicity about his performance. A letter penned by Mr Banks' one-time driver, Paul Mitchell, was leaked to the media.

Mr Mitchell resigned as electorate chairman after a row with Mr Heatley, accusing the candidate of lacking the wisdom, experience and energy to campaign effectively.

The National Party tried to characterise the fallout as resistance to change, but some mud may have stuck.

A sliver of silver lining may be the high name-recognition Mr Heatley now enjoys for a newcomer. The attack may even earn him some sympathy votes.

But ask locals and it is NZ First's Mr Donnelly who many pick will cross the line first.

When he stood in 1993, he came third after the National and Labour candidates, but in 1996 he almost toppled Mr Banks.

Voters cottoned on to the opportunities offered by MMP to support Mr Donnelly as the best-placed candidate to oust the divisive Mr Banks.

Tactical voting saw Mr Donnelly pick up a groundswell of support (12,610 votes), twice what NZ First achieved in the party vote (6607 votes).

The figures indicate that Mr Donnelly picked up Labour Party supporters, who voted not so much for him as against Mr Banks.

It has been suggested that Labour and Alliance voters could again vote for Mr Donnelly to keep National out, but this time they will have concerns about handing NZ First a constituency MP.

Nevertheless, Mr Donnelly has a solid reputation and has scored points for not jumping parties. And some voters will want to swim with the tide and back a favourite.

One rival party's poll shows the 49-year-old, elevated to a ministerial position in his first term in Parliament, well ahead of the pack.

National and Labour prefer voters to regard Whangarei as their own two-horse race, but they cannot seem to buck Mr Donnelly, who claims insiders in both major parties have told him polls show him in front.

Labour's Denise Jelicich is expecting the sort of landslide that saw Whangarei go to Labour in 1972.

The 45-year-old schoolteacher, who scents history repeating itself, successfully lobbied to have Hikurangi, north of Whangarei, included in the electorate, which she thinks means an extra 500 Labour votes.

Denise Jelicich's real winning chance could come if the Alliance candidate stands back. But 43-year-old Tricia Cutforth shows no sign of that. The Northland manager of Skill New Zealand has been working hard to raise her profile and seems convinced she can beat the odds.

A candidate who seems to accept that in the electorate race the odds are stacked too greatly against her is Act's Dr Muriel Newman. Like Mr Donnelly, she made it to Parliament in 1996 as a list MP. Dr Newman is telling Whangarei people to put her back by voting not for her but the party.

She views that as her best shot of returning to the House. The strategy also minimises the risk of taking crucial votes off Mr Heatley.

Both sides deny making deals, but Dr Newman hints that voters could shore up extra local representation by voting for someone other than herself.

She must be hoping that "other" will be Mr Heatley, not Mr Donnelly and Act's anathema, NZ First.