Key electorate: Te Tai Tokerau

by Richard Knight

Maori in Te Tai Tokerau were excited when one of their own, Tau Henare, became Minister of Maori Affairs.

Their expectations were high. They thought they had someone who would fight the good fight for them, who would take on Parliament to ensure things changed for the better.

But, in the words of voter Del Bristow, "He blew it."

Her opinion seems to be shared by many.

"We had high hopes when Tau was Minister of Maori Affairs. We believed he was going to do the stuff, but it looks like he made compromise after compromise," said Del Bristow. "I'm not sure if I will vote for him this time again."

Disenchantment with lack of progress in the rural area of the electorate may cost Mr Henare the seat he has held for six years.

That would be a massive turnaround. At the last election, under the New Zealand First banner, Mr Henare won 12,826 votes against 4408 for runnerup Labour.

But very little has changed up north since his term in office began. Employment, health, education and housing are still major concerns in the rural sector of the seat.

Bay of Islands artist Suzanne Te Tai is so disillusioned she is not going to vote.

"It's a waste of time. Be they Pakeha or Maori, they all end up the same, all wanting to keep their job. They forget who sent them to Parliament."

Mr Henare's unashamedly pro-Maori stance in Parliament over his past two terms has won him wide support. But the general opinion seems to be that, when he had the chance to make a real difference for Maori, it failed to happen.

In the main, Maori are loyal and expect loyalty from their candidates. Mr Henare's desertion of Winston Peters and NZ First when the coalition collapsed upset a lot of his supporters.

And that was in spite of Mr Henare's saying he stayed backing National because the Government benches were the only place from which he could do things to benefit the country.

Mr Peters' Far North tribal links have cost Mr Henare support, lessening his chances of retaining the seat.

By contrast, Labour's Dover Samuels is riding a pro-Labour wave of popularity that has swept the six Maori seats, with some polls predicting a clean sweep.

Mr Samuels has worked hard to improve his profile in the electorate and as early as February he predicted the political demise of Mr Henare.

Mr Samuels became a party list MP in 1996. That was after the sitting MP, Dr Bruce Gregory, lost to Mr Henare in the 1993 elections.

Mr Samuels failed in his bid to replace Dr Gregory (who held the seat for 13 years after the late Matiu Rata resigned) - as the Labour candidate. Mr Samuels is keen to take on Mr Henare on election night, feeling his time has come. He has sworn not to take the Maori vote for granted, saying the Maori MPs will stand by their voters and not desert them for personal gain.

At the last election, Mr Henare gained 2700 votes from urban Maori and 4968 from the rural sector. His biggest support came from special votes, where he polled 5158.

The changes to electoral boundaries have seen Mr Henare lose some of his urban support for this year's elections.

Former Greenpeace campaigner Ella Henry will stand for Mana Motuhake under the Alliance banner, but has little chance in what will be a two-horse race.

National has failed to attract Maori voters in any of the electorates, and, although it is fielding Far North identity Tom Bowling Murray in Te Tai Tokerau, he is unlikely to make much impact.

The Winston Peters factor, while not as strong as in 1996, could play a role for NZ First's Anaru George.

Mr Peters has undergone a resurgence in the polls since his partial victory in the Winebox tax case and his popularity is increasing. That could help Mr George, but not enough to cause the frontrunners any problems.

Nellie Rata caused a stir when she turned her back on the Mana Motuhake party founded by her late husband, Matiu Rata, to endorse Act, a party with completely contrasting philosophies on Maori issues.

Mrs Rata said Act was the only party prepared to put a cutoff date on Treaty of Waitangi claims and settlements. Her support could earn Act much-needed list votes.

Mr Henare is seen as Mauri Pacific's best hope of representation in Parliament.

In 1993, he risked everything, including his job and mortgage, to stand as a political rookie challenging Labour's traditional hold on the seat.

It was one of the biggest shocks of that election when he unseated Dr Gregory by 416 votes.

Until then, Labour had held the seat as if by right.

In August last year, after being dumped as deputy leader of NZ First, Mr Henare, along with Tukoroirangi Morgan, Rana Waitai, Jack Elder and the Rev Ann Batten, went off into a new party, named a couple of months later as Mauri Pacific.

A September Sunday Star Times-UMR Insight poll gave Mr Samuels 43 per cent support, well ahead of Mr Henare's 21 per cent. The Mauri Pacific party vote in Te Tai Tokerau was running at only 3 per cent.

For the leader of the fledgling party, the future is definitely not looking good.