Chris Hipkins will have to show an extraordinary degree of leadership to rescue his party from this political disaster.
The self-destruction of Kiri Allan’s ministerial - if not political - career is not something he would or could have anticipated as being his next big headache as Prime Minister.
As scandals go, the arrest of the Justice Minister eclipses all the previous ones that Hipkins has dealt with: the defection of Meka Whaitiri, the rule breaches of Stuart Nash and Michael Wood, and poor management skills of Allan.
It eclipses just about anything any Prime Minister has faced.
It comes at what was a delicate time in pre-campaign manoeuvres for the election on October 14.
Hipkins had just completed his two big overseas trips and was last week focused on getting the Government back on track. It went reasonably well with three big announcements to address youth crime amounting to one small step.
Allan’s resignation after a car crash and charges of careless use of a motor vehicle and failure to accompany a police officer represents 10 steps backwards into thick mud.
It will be miraculous if Hipkins can rescue his Government from this quagmire.
While Hipkins is clearly Labour’s best asset, when its best asset is spending so much of his energy on managing his own ministers, he cannot make the case to voters that the party is fit to govern again.
His own team is distracting him from focusing on bread-and-butter issues.
But he made a good case at his press conference this morning as to why he believed she was ready, including her good performance last week which was noted by several commentators.
The press conference demonstrated Hipkins’ high level of emotional intelligence and the sort of compassion any person would want from their boss.
But that will be irrelevant to most voters. They want a set of policies to improve their lives - and a competent Government to implement them.
An aggravating factor in their respective demises is that a year ago, they were the great hopes of the party. They were both promoted to the front bench by Hipkins in January when Jacinda Ardern quit, and were both seen as future leadership prospects.
To say that Allan let her colleagues down is an understatement.
Her actions will have a big effect not just on her parliamentary colleagues but the wider party at a time when Labour would be relying on their enthusiasm to deliver a strong ground game for the campaign.
And let’s be clear that despite suggestions by some commentators, Kiri Allan’s actions and arrest have nothing to do with the pressure of a large ministerial workload.
Hipkins’ should have no qualms about distributing her Justice and Regional Economic Development to other ministers in terms of workload.
He may have considered giving Justice to one of the talented 2020 intake such as Vanushi Walters or Camilla Belich but he has decided to reallocate it to an existing minister.
Hipkins was already relatively risk-averse and this latest scandal will reinforce it. He already had a difficult task to claw Labour back from the low 30s in recent political polls.
The Allan car crash may prove to be the tipping point for Labour’s own electoral crash.
Audrey Young covers politics as the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018. She was previously political editor, leading the Herald’s Press Gallery team.