Judith Collins on Tuesday confirmed the Government’s highly anticipated Defence Capability Plan (DCP), which will set out planned defence investments for coming years, won’t be released this year.
Instead, it’s now expected in the first quarter of next year. Asked by the Herald whether she would commit to delivering it then, given a series of previous delays to its release, Collins said the public-facing aspect of it “should be available” then.
Pushing the report until 2025 was because “things have got worse in the world” over the past year, the minister said, and time was needed “to get it right, because we’re looking at a significant investment over the years”.
What specifically has got worse, the Herald asked. Collins said, “the world” and “tensions” in different regions, “particularly in our neck of the woods”.
And who’s creating those tensions? “Well, I think you can work things through, can’t you?”
“We can see what’s happening in the South China Sea, we’ve been very clear to make sure that we want to protect the sea lanes. We also see the competition that’s going on strategically, I just think we need to be a little bit careful.”
Defence Minister Judith Collins during her appearance at the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee hearing at Parliament, December 3, 2024. Photo / Mark Mitchell
“Everything’s changing. North Korea’s behaviour now. The sanction-busting work that has been going on. That sort of thing. All of that has changed. The environment. We have a Defence Force that was completely hollowed in the last few years.
“We are working much closer I believe with Australia, in particular, as our only formal ally to make sure that we are more interoperable. Some of the discussions have changed a wee bit. Also, I am really concerned to make sure we don’t promise what we can’t deliver.”
Earlier, when discussing the changing geopolitical strategic environment before a select committee, Collins referred to China in September firing an ICBM carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific.
“The intercontinental ballistic missile that China launched from its launch site in China to past Kiribati is about the same distance as it would be from that same launch site to New Zealand,” she said.
Collins said she had raised the issue and been assured it was a “routine training exercise”, but the last time that exercise had taken place was 44 years ago.
“So I’m not quite sure how routine this would be, but I do think it sent a very strong signal. It was launched into the south Pacific nuclear-free zone. It didn’t have a warhead on it, but it could have, but it was very concerning.”
Collins told the Herald afterwards that missile “changed the game” and she believed not many Pacific nations “feel that that’s a routine training operation”.
The DCP was previously expected in June, before it was pushed back later into the year. In August, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said it would be confirmed “in the coming months”, but it was also suggested it could fall into 2025. One of the reasons given for the delays has been to ensure new defence leadership have ownership of the plan.
Concerns about China’s push into the Indo-Pacific have been growing for years. In August, the Ministry of Defence said its “assertive pursuit of its strategic objectives is the new major driver for the new era of strategic competition among states, both globally and particularly in the Indo-Pacific”.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met with China's President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in Peru. Photo / Pool
Collins also faced questions about how her DCP may deal with significant cost pressures. The Public Service Association (PSA) has claimed Defence Force is looking for savings of $360 million, which would be above the $158m operating deficit reported for the 2023/24 financial year.
“The Defence Force received funding this year that others did not get,” Collins said.
“It’s also, however, dealing with very difficult cost pressures. No one is shying away from that. You’ll have to wait for the DCP to be released ... as for the Budget, you’ll have to wait for that too.”
There was new funding of $571m for Defence Force pay and projects in Budget 2024, including $163m for remuneration and $408m to upgrade equipment and infrastructure.
Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office.
