John Armstrong: John Key drops clue on real agenda

Prime Minister John Key sitting in front of the Chief Justice, Dame Sian Elias (bottom right) and judges of the Supreme, Appeal and High Courts during the opening of Parliament. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Today's Speech from the Throne outlining the new National minority Government's legislative and policy programme is unusually non-contentious. So non-contentious that it seems rather bland.

And that is just the way the Prime Minister would like the speech to be viewed - solid, if unspectacular.

You had to wait until the Governor-General had read the last paragraph of the speech for a definitive statement on John Key's real agenda behind his Government's agenda.

That final sentence notes that National is "privileged" to have won the trust and goodwill of New Zealand voters for a third time and will seek to re-earn that trust and goodwill "every day" over the next three years.

In other words, Key's mind is already intently focussed on how his Government avoids the third-term blues and matches Sir Keith Holyoake's 1960s achievement of winning four straight elections - something which is even more difficult under a proportional electoral system like MMP compared to the previous first-past-the-post system which had a built-in bias favouring National.

That Key has seen fit to make reference to such realpolitik so soon following re-election in a speech which is otherwise normally just a long shopping list of policies is both a reminder to himself and his Cabinet and caucus colleagues of the paramount need to maintain self-discipline and not get out of touch as it is a warning to Opposition parties that they will not necessarily be able to rely on National burning itself out as other Oppositions have been able to do so with other third-term administrations.

The message for Labour is especially chilling: even if you get your house in order, you may be no better off. National favours blandness over audacity because that is the way voters currently like it.

In that respect, today's speech contains precious little that Labour would argue with. The only viable line of attack for Labour and other Opposition parties is that in terms of action, the speech does not go far enough, be it lifting New Zealand's woeful level of spending on research and development or listing practical measures for easing child poverty.

It is here that National is vulnerable - as are all third-term governments. The voting public imposes higher and higher expectations on such governments to deliver more and more.

The last paragraph of the speech, however, is indication aplenty that Key is well aware that failure to meet those expectations is the real threat to his and National's longevity in power, rather than a revitalised Labour Party.