It seemed an astonishingly naive admission by the Finance Minister. Just months out from the partial float of Mighty River Power, Bill English is saying it is guesswork as to how much the Government expects to raise from such sell-offs over the next four years.
It is a pretty safe bet that the Treasury is heaving with costly consultants' reports estimating fairly precisely how much will be raised.
The last thing the Government wants to do is reveal those estimates to the financial markets. However, it is required under the Public Finance Act to produce some forecasts of sale proceeds in the Budget policy statement issued yesterday.
So the total cited from all the projected sell-downs was $6 billion - the mid-point between the $5 billion to $7 billion the Government has quoted as its expectation from the sale of up to 49 per cent of state electricity generators and a downsizing of the taxpayer holding in Air New Zealand.
Cash proceeds from the share sales were cited at $1.5 billion for each of the four next financial years - a nice round figure which takes no account of changing market conditions. True, the Finance Minister produced more exact estimates of foregone dividends and savings in borrowing costs. But he said those were guesses, too. But if this was guesswork then it was really all about keeping potential buyers guessing.
